Atlantic low pressure has been a dominant feature over the northeast Atlantic/northwest Europe bringing a very wet October with record rainfall. The 3 former tropical cyclones which got caught by the westerlies and crossed a warmer than normal North Atlantic into Ireland and the UK enhanced the rainfall this month.
Low pressure has resulted in subpar temperatures from the British Isles, especially across Scandinavia.
Low pressure into both the UK and most recently, Spain, has led to stronger than normal high pressure and southerly winds blowing out of Africa which has resulted in a very warm October from Germany east.
A deep western Mediterranean cyclone has brought wild weather to Spain and the Balearics with flash flooding hitting Menorca. This low has driven hot air out of Africa into central and eastern Europe where temperatures have exceeding 25C widely.
The remainder of October remains unsettled for the western fringes of the continent while record warmth continues over central and eastern areas as seen by the CFSv2 500mb height anomaly for the next 7 days.
However, the models are now consistently suggesting a westward retrogression of Europe high and repositioning over the Atlantic week 2 and cold trough anchored over the UK week 3 as a Greenland block develops.
Note the flip from warm to cold with the shift in ridge position week 1, 2 and 3.
By week 4 and the Atlantic trough is back but there’s high pressure over northeast Europe.
The mild returns.
Interestingly the CFSv2 has northern Europe blocking and troughiness underneath.
This results in a widespread cooler than normal month!
As for precipitation, northern blocking would support a dry north, wet south as per the CFSv2.
GET READY! MY 10TH CONSECUTIVE WINTER FORECAST IS COMING UP SOON!!!
FEATURED IMAGE: Tony Hardley Photography @HardleyTony
Recent Comments