Europe November 2019 Outlook

Written by on October 24, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Atlantic low pressure has been a dominant feature over the northeast Atlantic/northwest Europe bringing a very wet October with record rainfall. The 3 former tropical cyclones which got caught by the westerlies and crossed a warmer than normal North Atlantic into Ireland and the UK enhanced the rainfall this month.

Low pressure has resulted in subpar temperatures from the British Isles, especially across Scandinavia.

Low pressure into both the UK and most recently, Spain, has led to stronger than normal high pressure and southerly winds blowing out of Africa which has resulted in a very warm October from Germany east.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

A deep western Mediterranean cyclone has brought wild weather to Spain and the Balearics with flash flooding hitting Menorca. This low has driven hot air out of Africa into central and eastern Europe where temperatures have exceeding 25C widely.

The remainder of October remains unsettled for the western fringes of the continent while record warmth continues over central and eastern areas as seen by the CFSv2 500mb height anomaly for the next 7 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

However, the models are now consistently suggesting a westward retrogression of Europe high and repositioning over the Atlantic week 2 and cold trough anchored over the UK week 3 as a Greenland block develops.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Note the flip from warm to cold with the shift in ridge position week 1, 2 and 3.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

By week 4 and the Atlantic trough is back but there’s high pressure over northeast Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The mild returns.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Interestingly the CFSv2 has northern Europe blocking and troughiness underneath.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This results in a widespread cooler than normal month!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As for precipitation, northern blocking would support a dry north, wet south as per the CFSv2.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GET READY! MY 10TH CONSECUTIVE WINTER FORECAST IS COMING UP SOON!!!

FEATURED IMAGE: Tony Hardley Photography @HardleyTony

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