Up until now it’s been a very mild December in a SSE corridor stretching from Alaska to Arkansas.
Credit: Michael Ventrice
The opening 10 days of the month was most unusual with a record breaking snow event from Brownsville, TX all the way along the Gulf Coast and points inland across the South to the Florida Panhandle.
Accumulating #snow so far this season:
– Gulf Coast from South Texas -> Florida panhandle: Yep
– Parts of #Iowa: Nope (and nearing a record-long wait) https://t.co/yQqNw9CfKt pic.twitter.com/6LuxmWcT0m— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) December 21, 2017
Several cities in the Southeast have seen more snow this winter than cities in the Midwest, Northeast, and even parts of Alaska! In fact, Jackson, MS has had more snow this season than Minneapolis and Buffalo combined! pic.twitter.com/w7SNqZnfsm
— Allison Chinchar (@AllisonChinchar) December 9, 2017
Snow along the Mississippi Gulf Coast isn’t unheard of…
Every once in a while, it does snow on the Miss. Gulf Coast.. It did in Dec of 1963! Check out this picture of the Biloxi Lighthouse along US 90 surrounded by a blanket of snow. Photo Credit: @CityofBiloxi #mswx pic.twitter.com/FazndODsmB
— Joel Young (@WTVAJoel) December 7, 2017
Let’s not forget the devastating month it’s been for fire in California.
The largest wildfire in California history has occurred in December. #ThomasFire https://t.co/m0xU3SDQZO pic.twitter.com/vfPau8P8Hc
— USFS Fire-California (@R5_Fire_News) December 23, 2017
It’s rare for large wildfires to burn in CA in Dec., but the #ThomasFire shattered most records after burning for 16 days & scorching 272,000 acres. This image uses @NASAEarth satellite data & a Global Digital Elevation Model to show topography of the area https://t.co/5VGgEQHN8y pic.twitter.com/TCkZpzpZZP
— NASA (@NASA) December 22, 2017
While it’s been a mild month particularly for the Plains, the final week of December arctic outbreak is sure to significantly dent the positive anomaly over the Plains in particular. The cold holds strong into at least the first 10 days of January in the East.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
While one system lifts out of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys today/tonight, the next coast to coast snow system is beginning to affect the Pacific Northwest and will affect Nebraska and Kansas Christmas Eve and by the end of Christmas Day New England.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Total snow through the end of Christmas day according to the latest GFS run.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The first wave of Arctic air sweeps in on it’s heels.
Check out the GFS snow through 240 hours or January 2! Note along the Gulf Coast!
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Cold end to December/beginning of January but what about the rest of the month?
While January opens cold and it’s likely to remain cold in the East through at least the 15th, I expect a flip to colder West, warmer East during the 2nd half of the month. When is the big question.
CFSv2 weeklies show the flip around the 10th.
CFSv2 weekly 500mb height anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
2 metre temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The coldest/wildest period of the entire winter is likely between Christmas and January 6, possibly Christmas to New Year.
GFS ensemble temperatures (this is a model blend)
Wed 27th
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
New Year’s morning
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Latest GFS run shows -35 for Grand Forks, ND on Saturday Dec 30.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
As the core of cold shifts ESE towards New Years, I expect single digits from DC to New York, possibly 0 for Boston.
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