Though temperatures are set to soar to 30, perhaps 31C tomorrow afternoon across parts of Southeast England, the cooling already filtering down through Northern Ireland and Scotland is a sure sign of things to come further south but that’s just half of the story.

Low pressure is now in the process of replacing the high bringing the fine, sunny and warm early September weather to the UK, Ireland and western Europe. Though it holds over the continent, it’s getting kicked out of the UK bigtime over the next 48 hours and dramatic changes are on the way. Many northern and central areas may well see their coolest temperatures since May and the low that sets up this weekend, may take it’s sweet old time, spinning over or just south of the UK this weekend, extending into next week. Arms of rain wrapping around the circulation may plague our pattern, presenting us with a flood potential.

The rain which builds in from the south, southeast could produce flooding across parts of England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland Friday into Saturday.

We have a large temperature spread across the UK tomorrow all thanks to a front dropping southeastwards tonight. By mid afternoon tomorrow that front should be draped across the Midlands.

The ECMWF cloud cover chart shows the front is expected by late morning tomorrow. This will separate the two very different air masses, producing very different feeling days despite sunshine north and south of the boundary.

While it’s 30C in the Southeast, parts of the Northwest may be struggling at 12 or 13C despite sunshine. A stiff northwest wind will make it feel colder.

So, Friday and Saturday will see a belt of heavy rain spread north, northwest affecting England, Wales across to Ireland and Northern Ireland but it looks as though the bulk of this heavy precip stays south of Scotland. Through the weekend, this rain is seen by the models to rotate around a sprawling low pressure system and clearing skies combined with cold air in the mid and upper levels, may allow some chilly overnight temperatures Saturday into Sunday. If winds slacken enough along with the clear skies, we could see some rural frost develop.

Below is the GFS surface/precip charts which take us through the weekend.

57 hr

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60 hr

66 hr

While the GFS takes the low slightly south, moisture wrapping around the centre, will pull back north, keeping the flood threat going well into Saturday, even Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Below is the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps into next week and notice the big difference from the GFS in it’s solution. Rather than taking the upper low south which was it’s original idea, it now fills and we get a predominantly westerly flow with ridging as a North Atlantic trough digs south from Greenland where it turns colder.

The omega blocking high will keep things hot and settled over the heart of the continent and with this setup, it makes sense that the low over Britain doesn’t leave anytime soon.

Note the upper low with cold air aloft during Sunday sits directly over the UK. Get clear skies by night and we may the coolest night in a few months with widespread single figures with even a few minuses in a few places.

Sun 8

Wed 11

Thu 12

Sat 14

Summer 2013 Was Warm But It Was No 2006 Or 2003

Think this summer was warm? It sure was but while it was the third warmest on record for the UK and second warmest for both Scotland and Northern Ireland, this was by no means on par with 2006. There’s a big difference between both 2006 and 2003 and this year. Of course both 2003  and 2006 produced all-time record highs but the mean temperatures are considerably greater than this summer as you can see from the below charts released by the Met Office.

This summer

2006

2003

In stark contrast, take a look at the cool and very wet summers of last year and 2011. No surprise really.

2012

2011 was even cooler.

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