The pattern has become somewhat benign across the United States in the past week but what’s interesting is that we’re now seeing the evolution of a pattern which may take us towards fall. In other words the end game to summer is showing it’s hand with a trough returning to the East after the recent hot spell and there is a lot of indication that what we’re seeing shape up now will last through much of August. We may see another brief surge of heat back into the East late in August but all in all a cooler, damper pattern appears to finish summer in the East.

Despite all the recent rains over Texas, they are now drying out and heating back up after a fairly lengthy cool spell. Cool by Texas standards. Dallas shall see 100 again tomorrow while Houston gets there either Thursday or most certainly Friday through the weekend as the Western ridge builds into the Southern Plains. A trough builds into the Pacific Northwest and that is responsible for pushing the core of heat east and by doing so, deepens the trough along the East Coast. Highs Thursday may stay in the 70s in New York, certainly Boston.

While heat builds over Texas, the next 7 days looks to see at least two cold fronts drop into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast bringing a spell of showers and thunderstorms. These fronts associated with lows tracking across the US-Canada border while simply hold the trough in the East, reinforcing a cooler, more pleasant air mass from Chicago to New York down to Atlanta.

The ECMWF surface chart shows the first front clearing the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. Cooler, less humid drops in behind the front but shower activity may linger along the coast with the tail keeping things unsettled down across the already soaking Southeast where it’s been a cool summer here.

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Thursday looks sunny and pleasant over the inland Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. While one front tries to get off the coast, the next system brings wet conditions to the Great Lakes.

By Sunday the next front is pushing towards the Big Cities of the Northeast and this looks like it means business with active showers and storms along the front during Sunday.

Check this out for late Sunday into Monday.

That’s a lot of rain all the way into Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi all the way to Louisiana. Perhaps a chance at seeing some showers and storms back into Houston following a hot late week, weekend period here. That chance is likely to be low at this time.

Again, like we’ll see with the first front this weekend, rain and unsettled conditions will have a hard time getting off the coast due to a strong Bermuda high to the east, ultimately stopping the front from truly clearing, we’ll see that again next week with the second system but by Tuesday, the ECM certainly shows it clearing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast.

So, once that second system finally clears the coast giving the DC to Boston corridor a break for the shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday, we see yet more unsettled weather stream in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley later Wednesday into Thursday and things get lively once again Thursday into Friday as the front becomes more active.

Check this out for next Friday!

You see what’s happening here. There is no sign of any ridge that’s building over Texas through the next 48 hours from really ever reaching the East again in the near term and folks this setup continues well into August where it’s just one front after the other bringing a day or so of sun and relief before the next system drops down. Into simply one shot of cool after another.

I know I keep on showing you this but here again is the CFSv2. Below is the newest run and you see how cool much of the nation is looking in August. Notice where it’s warm, Texas into Louisiana where it’s liable to be dry. That warmth should linger well into fall just as winter starts early from the Upper Midwest all the way towards the Mid-Atlantic. Yes, I’ve said it and not for the first time.. winter looks likely to kick off early and the pattern even for fall never mind just August could well be evolving now.

Here’s the August precip. Notice the amount of rain the model is showing over the Northern tier.

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