A raft of hefty showers and thunderstorms developed and tracked north aboard a warm, moist southerly flow. It was the first real day of disturbed weather in 3 weeks. While the DRY spell has ended, the warm, humid conditions live on as low pressure remains west of the UK and without managing to get overhead or particularly to our east, warm, humid air will continue to hang around for the foreseeable future. As an actual fact, the setup shows no end in sight to the ABOVE NORMAL temperatures with highs generally in the 21-24C range in the North and a balmy, tropical-like 23-27C in Central and Southern areas.

Low pressure close enough to our west will swing a series of fronts across Ireland and the UK bringing spells of heavy, thundery rain but with a dominant high close enough to the east, southeast, we shall continue to see a warm, moist southerly flow. The warm air is wrapping around the low too. In other words it’s a warm pattern with no cool air to get back onto the playing field.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps through this weekend into next week.

Fri 26

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Sun 28

Tue 30

Thu 1

As you can see, the model may be hinting at a somewhat warmer surge Sunday. If we get any sun along with the warmer air mass, we could see highs return to 30 or 31C in the South, 27 or 28C in the North. Even if it’s not sunny, there’s plenty of heat and humidity to fuel thunderstorms.

As for the next few days. While today’s front clears, another follows late tomorrow into early Thursday bringing another line of heavy rain accompanied by embedded thunderstorms. Here’s the chart off the ECMWF for early Thursday.

This band clears later Thursday and Friday will see showers and longer spells of rain across Ireland, NI and Scotland while it should be somewhat drier and brighter in the South.

Saturday sees yet more rain, some of which thundery across the South and North as spokes of energy simply rotate around the low to our west. The trouble is this setup could continue through much of nest week as heights are too strong further east to allow the low to push in. The blocked pattern remains, the key difference is the block has shifted position and we are now suddenly at the mercy of one front after another and with the pressure pattern aligned the way it is, it shall remain warm and humidity. Those two will keep our atmosphere rather unstable, keeping the thunderstorm risk going.

After more arms of heavy precip swing through Saturday and Sunday, here’s Monday…

I think you get the picture. A very different pattern is evolving as we enter the last of July. This shall set the scene for August which was always looking wetter but staying warm. There is no evidence to support any real cool down over the next 2 weeks.

Next Wednesday!

Often with long duration hot spell, the surrounding sea and ocean heats and I’ve been saying for much of July now that we need to watch out in August as low pressure returns. This next 10 days could dump a lot of rain over Ireland and the UK as the low is positioned just right. It not only transports moisture from a warm source and allows warm air to flow north ahead of it but those warmer than normal waters will help increase the amount of available liquid which can get sucked up into the clouds and drop over us.

Lots of rain is expected over the next 7 days as you can see from this chart off the ECMWF.

This pattern screams FLASH FLOODING in August with a few events which could make headlines. Look out.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That\’s it, [s2Get constant=\”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME\” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan\’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]