As we close the door to autumn’s 2nd month there’s contradiction in the modelling around the end of Oct/beginning of November solution.
GFS ensemble indicates a turn to much cooler around Halloween on into the opening days of November, a change from recent years while the CFSv2 weeklies hold on to the milder theme.
GFS ensemble 5-mean 2m temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
CFSv2 weelies
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Like September, October has been wet and at times stormy but while September was cool, October has been mild.
This has been the setup for the past couple of months, even extending back through the summer.
September temperature anomaly
Credit: Michael Ventrice
October so far
Credit: Michael Ventrice
We indeed had two storms during October as expected. With Ophelia followed by Storm Brian.
Hurricane Ophelia on Portmarnock beach #Ophelia #OpheliaStorm #opheliaIreland pic.twitter.com/QMFXGRg2AG
— Judo Lenny (@JudoMartin) October 17, 2017
Credit: PAUL KINGSTON @PaulKingstonNNP
Good morning #StormBrian (pic by Cornwall live) pic.twitter.com/3qOogKfJgY
— Cornish Sea Salt (@CornishSea_Salt) October 21, 2017
Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation
With AO and NAO heading negative, most elements point to cooler, more settled conditions.
Looks like November at least opens cooler but as the month progresses I believe the upper air flow flattens out with the return of wetter and more unsettled.
CFSv2 for November
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: @thefixportrush @thefixportrush
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