US November 2016 Outlook (includes video)

Written by on October 23, 2017 in Autumn 2017, Summer 2017, United States of America with 0 Comments

The final days of October will host gusty Santa Ana winds and record heat in Southern California and potentially record cold in the Midwest and interior East. Overall it’s been cold in the Northwest but very warm east of the Rockies.

October 2m temperature anomaly so far for October.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Late October Santa Ana/Heatwave Event

Of course it’s been a devastating month for California wildfires and that threat remains thanks to a strong Santa Ana wind and heat wave event ongoing now.

While Southern California battles wind, heat and potentially more fire, the first major cold trough of the season is set to dive into the Midwest and East late this week drawing what’s been a warm October to a close. A strong phase 5 MJO and recurving Typhoon Lan in the western Pacific BOTH promote an eastern US trough.

Recurving Typhoon Lan.

Credit: weather.com

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly and 2m temperature anomaly days 1-5, 6-10.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Yep there’s snow on the charts too.

GFS through 240 hours

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Late season Caribbean development?

With another ‘Central American Gyre’ forecasted and MJO becoming more favorable for western Atlantic basin, we’re closely watching the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for late season tropical development this upcoming weekend into early next week. TROPICS aren’t done just yet!

So how’s November looking?

Unfortunately for those Eastern winter weather lovers, I believe the late October/early November cold shot is brief and the core of cold pulls back towards the interior Northwest while ridging and warmth returns to the East with a flattening out of the Pacific, trans US jet stream.

CFSv2 for November

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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