In the last 5-7 days, the heat has been in full blast from Central Plains to Southern California. The next few days will see the ridge core shift slightly east into the Four Corners then retrograde back west so no real heat relief for the Deserts or Great Basin through the remainder of June. Elsewhere across the nation, the heat has been back and fourth.
June 2 metre temperature anomaly to date.
CREDIT: MICHAEL VENTRICE
Note the two areas which stand out on the cool side is Texas and more so, the Northeast. Texas has an excuse due to the wet ground where as there’s slight drought conditions in the Northeast but the pattern hasn’t favoured prolonged Northeast heat, yet! I suspect the temperature anomaly will change in July.
Through July and the heart of summer, the atmosphere enters a more mature summer state with feedback of wet and dry ground as well as SSTA’s kicking in. The mean summer ridge position settles over Texas when dry but if wet like it is this year, you tend to find it brings hotter conditions further west and north and while it’s dry in the Southeast, expect come and go hot surges.
The CFSv2 looks pretty good to me with it’s primary ridge core positioned west of Texas, attracted to the arid desert and west of where the ground is wet. This should keep it hot through much of July in the West and focused on the Southwest while surges of heat come and go over the Pacific Northwest.
CREDIT: TROPICAL TIDBITS
Precip anomaly
CREDIT: TROPICAL TIDBITS
2 metre temp anomaly
CREDIT: TROPICAL TIDBITS
While the Southeast and Northeast has seen summer warmth come and go, the dry theme has continued into the longer term and with the height of summer coming up, I suspect the Big Cities of the I-95 will have more heat to contend with and a potential for top 10 warm July with many 90-degree days and even a shot at 100F all the way to Boston.
Don’t be surprised to see another ‘mega ridge’ develop over the Southwest again in July with even warmer temperatures then what we’ve just seen.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Kelly Davis @KellyDavis1
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