While there was no cooling towards the end of December, the overall December Outlook played out quite well with warm and wet the rule. If there was an underestimate to the month, it came with the degree of warmth seen, likely down to the peaking of the Super El Nino which I believe is overwhelming the pattern not just over Europe but entire hemisphere. It looks like this warm, wet trend continues into January.
The El Nino appears to have peaked and should slowly decrease in strength through the next few months.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
You only have to look at the warmth globally for both November and December.
NOVEMBER
Credit: Albany University
DECEMBER-to-date
Credit: Albany University
Whether it’s the El Nino or a separate driver, the AO/NAO index just doesn’t want to go negative or even neutral for that matter.
That’s down to the continued strength of the polar vortex and Europe may well have seen it’s warmest November-December in history.
NOVEMBER
Credit: Albany University
DECEMBER-TO-DATE
Credit: Albany University
Based on the lack of weakening and displacement AWAY from Europe of the polar vortex, I don’t see a great deal of change in our upper air pattern through a large chunk of January.
If you look at the 7-day and 10-day 50mb temperatures over the pole, there is warming but like seen in the past 2 winters, it’s between Asia and Northwest Canada with the vortex and colder stratosphere shifting over Greenland and towards Europe. This supports a negative height field between Greenland and UK with moderate to strong positive over Europe. Warm and wet would result with the exception of cold air entrainment in the wake of passing lows.
50mb 7 day.
10 day
Any contributing factor in driving an enhanced or persistent westerly is the westerly QBO.
Credit: Michael Ventrice
I’m afraid this does not support a colder, blocky pattern for our side of the hemisphere. If this warming can progress further through January then this may open the door to a colder shift towards late January into February but as of now, the El Nino appears to be controlling things with a tighter PV circling the pole and therefore the westerlies should remain dominant.
Canadian for January
500mb height anomalies
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
CFSv2 for January
500mb height anomalies
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The previous Super El Nino of 1997 verses 2015 are quite different with a much greater spread within the equatorial Pacific of warmth compared to 18 years ago. The North Pacific is warmer while the North Atlantic has a more warm-cold-warm tripole whereas there was a cold-warm-cold tripole in 1997. This years setup supports blocking and colder weather but I think until we see further cooling within Nino 1.2, warmth will rule.
The sheer power and global influence of this El Nino has been underestimated. Even with the Nino slowly coming off it’s peak and waters gradually cooling in close to South America, is it too little too late when it comes to cold and snow this winter? That very much remains to be seen. Let’s see how January plays out.
For daily in-depth written and video forecasts for both Europe and the USA, sign-up today for as little as 69p.
Recent Comments