United States January 2016 Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by on December 25, 2015 in Autumn 2015, United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

It’s been a warm fall and open to the 2015-16 winter and when looking back, I think you would agree that the overall December Outlook played out quite well with the cold West, warm East.

If there was an underestimate to the month, it came with the degree of warmth seen, likely down to the peaking of the Super El Nino and warmth in-close to South America. To me, it’s quite clear that this years Super Nino is overwhelming the pattern not just over the US but the entire hemisphere.

To top this warm December off, yesterday was the warmest Christmas Eve in history up and down the East Coast.

Credit: Albany University

Credit: Albany University

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On the opposite coast, old man winter was causing travel issues over the Sierra. This was Daggett Pass, CA yesterday.

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December temperature anomaly to date!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The El Nino appears to have peaked and should slowly decrease in strength through the next few months.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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You only have to look at the warmth globally in both November and December. This classic to the strongest El Ninos.

NOVEMBER

Credit: Albany University

DECEMBER-to-date

Credit: Albany University

Whether it’s the El Nino or a separate driver, the AO/NAO index just doesn’t want to go negative or even neutral for that matter.

ao_fcst

nao_fcst

That’s down to a strong, pole positioned vortex leading to potentially the warmest November-December in history for US as well as Europe.

Large-scale pattern change after New Year?

The models continue to show significant strat warming at 10mb through the next 15 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

MJO crosses through the warm phases of 5, 6 and 7 but is projected to enter phase 8!

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small_2(2)

combined_image

As well as the strat warming, modelling shows the reflection at 500mb with heights rising up into Northwest Canada during January.

GFS ensemble shows the positive lifting northwestwards and this should lead to a trough over the Eastern US through the first 10-15 days of January.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Canadian for January

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

For more on the overall winter, see Winter 2015-16 Forecast

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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Brett & William Photography Design!

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