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Will the upcoming winter of 2015-16 trend the same as the past two with record cold and snow or take a turn to warmer, perhaps more like 1997-98? Keep in mind that no El Nino nor certain sea surface temperature profile produces the same type of weather pattern.

The below 2015-16 winter forecast is based on

1. Current and forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies
2. El Nino
3. Warm PDO
4. Eurasia/Northern Hemisphere snow cover

Throughout my research and while putting together this years winter forecast, there has been two thorns in my side with both factors essentially promoting the opposite type of winter pattern. By that I mean a strong to super El Nino would on the face of it at least, suggests a warm, wet winter for the majority of the US but the warm pool in the north Pacific has essentially driven the harsh winters of both 2013-14 and 2014-15. Both strong El Nino and north Pacific warm pool are present this year but what wins?

However, there are important aspects to consider. The current SST profile both in Pacific and Atlantic are very different to that of 1997. The last big El Nino.

Have a look.

2015

1997

Both north Pacific and Atlantic is practically opposite this year compared to 97.

Also well worth pointing out. There is clear evidence showing a cooling going on in Nino region 1+2. That’s the crucial region in close to South America which can determine the upper pattern and whether it’s warm or cold over the Lower 48!

This didn’t cool at this time in 1997 nor did it into the winter, hence the warm, wet winter that year for the US.

2009 however saw a moderate to borderline strong El Nino but the key was that the warmest waters were in Nino region 3+4 (central/modoki) and that looks to be the way we’re heading in 2015.

What’s significant about this cooling up against the South America coast and westward shift in the Nino’s warmest water means the ridge shifts further west and further north and because of the warm water over the north Pacific still, this promotes more blocking over or near the same areas during the previous two winters.

The CFSv2 Dec-Feb forecast shows a strong comparison to winter of 97-98.

This November looks warm for much of the US and a lot like November 1982 (strong El Nino) and 2009 (moderate El Nino. The MJO (Maddan Julian Oscillation) enters warm phase 3, confirming the warm potential.

Upcoming 16 days according to GFS ensemble from a hemispheric perspective. Note the ridge in the eastern US.

JMA for November sees the same.

Similar to November 1982

November 2009.

Not so much like 1997.

Long range models see another potentially cold, snowy winter for a large swathe of the Lower 48 and not the 97-98 repeat.

JMA

Jamstec

Canadian for Dec, Jan, Feb

Dec

Jan

Feb

Met Office

Another very important aspect, especially ahead of the cold season and that is the increase in snow cover and arctic sea ice during the fall season.

Greater snow pack means faster, stronger build up of the cold reservoir over the arctic. It’s been above normal during October over parts of Asia as well as Canada but slightly below (less so) over western Canada and parts of Russia.

CURRENT HEMISPHERE SNOW COVER AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER

SNOW COVER ANOMALY

A lack of particularly over Eurasia, can mean a weaker Siberian cold high as well as less chance of a -AO because there is linkage between big snow covers and the triggering of a negative winter Arctic Oscillation.

The Verdict

Based on all the above including less prominence of the north Pacific warm pool and more prominence of the El Nino further south, I think there’s a different and possibly more mobile and flexable upper air pattern in 2015-16. I don’t see this winter as extreme as the previous two in terms of sustained cold but more of a mixed type of cold season with extremes on both ends of the temperature ledger possible especially the further East and Northeast you go. By that I mean record warmth, especially December followed by record cold in January? It’s plausible.

Keep in mind that the El Nino was a secondary component with the North Pacific warmth the primary driver the previous two years. The El Nino is far stronger now and the warm pool further north, though still there, is weakening.

This should hopefully be a decent winter for California with above to well above normal rain. We may see a drier than normal December or January but February into March should be very wet.

Monthly Breakdown

December

1-15th: Cold, snowy West, possibly very mild Midwest and East.

15-31st: A turn to much colder with potential snowstorm from Texas to New England in the run up to Christmas.

January

1-15th: Cold or very cold open for Midwest and East, stormy from SoCal to Southeast into Mid-Atlantic. Sharp increase in national snow cover from Wichita to DC northward.

15-31st: Cold eases with January thaw arriving for large swathe of the country.

February

1-15th: Major cold returns with potential for super arctic outbreak following major snowstorm from Chicago to St Louis across to DC up to NYC.

15-28th Cold eases slowly through second half of month. Rain and storms increase across US Southern Tier.

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Tags: cold, el nino, el nino 2015, featured, official, snow, US forecast 2015-16, US winter 2015-16, winter, winter forecast 2015-16