We all know this cold pattern can’t last forever but the big question has been for a while now, when will this all end. Since Mid-March it was clear the pattern would persist into April and now that we’re into April, I have been hinting at a mid-month turnaround with a potentially warmer than normal spell to end April across Western Europe. Unfortunately for those in Eastern Europe, I believe such cities as Moscow will continue to endure colder than normal conditions.
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While there is no real indication of WARM weather on the horizon, like with the cold, it wasn’t so much the daily model runs but the indexes which brought a hint of what may lie further down the road and when looking at both NAO and AO ensembles, there is clear evidence to support not only a break in this tiresome cold pattern but we have a decent shot at seeing warmth within the next 10-15 days.
Both indexes dropped like a stone into negative to bring about one of, if not thee coldest March in 100 years for Europe as well as the coldest in the USA since 1996 and both now look likely to rise back into STRONG POSITIVE territory just as sharp as they had fallen. Remember what was said, given these extreme blocking patterns, we can go from one to the other rather quickly. Like a rubber band snapping. Look for a return to normal temperatures along with a more unsettled regime once again next week as the stone gets rolled away from the North Atlantic. This opens the flood gates to a much milder WSW flow. Seems like a long time now since the WSW flow was mentioned right? Between days 7 through 14 it looks like the entire upper level pressure field changes across the northern hemisphere rebalances, like the atmosphere is pressing reset with low pressure finally replacing high pressure over the high latitudes. This will force the jet to return to a much more typical latitude up towards the UK.
So, to summarise, next week will be transition week with the relaxation and breakdown of the cold pattern and the return to milder, wetter SW winds but it’s once that index goes positive and I strongly believe they will by mid-month, then look for ridges to start pumping real warmth north from the Azores to the UK. Don’t be surprised to see 18C+ over Scotland, perhaps the first 21-23C readings across the South between the 15-25th.
NAO
AO
If you haven’t already, be sure to read my April-May Outlook. I explain the importance of spring rainfall and how this can shape the summer ahead. April looks to be drier than normal and May is likely to follow the drier than normal trend too. Very important in terms of feed back between soil and atmosphere and the influence on pressure and air temperature.
My summer 2013 forecast will be released Monday 8 April..
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