US April-May Outlook

There is most certainly light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the breakdown of this stubborn cold pattern which still dominates the Northern Plains down to the Mid-Atlantic. Through next week we will see a significant, 180-degree turnaround in temperature from 30s and 40s this week from North Dakota to West Virginia to 70s, even 80s from Missouri to the Delmarva, perhaps pushing up into New York City. The Northern Tier will be far cooler due to snow cover and the amount of cold air still existing over Canada.

The warmth starts off in the Southwest Thursday-Friday of this week, builds north and then eventually east as yet another trough gets carved out over the West.

April’s temperature looks to be largely BELOW normal in the West , centred over the Great Basin and Rockies, however very dry conditions and in fact the driest start to any year for much of California will keep it above normal here.

Here are the CFSv2 temperatures through April.

Week 1-2

590x737_04021112_pro2cfswk12

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Note week one (this week) shows considerably above normal in the West, even colder than normal from the Plains east with a flip coming by week 2.

Week 3-4

590x737_04021113_pro2cfswk34Week 3 starts off very warm while by week 4, a considerable cooldown.

As for precipitation. It will be wetter than normal from Texas to the Lakes on east to the Atlantic, largely thanks to the western trough triggering a southerly flow while it stays drier than normal across the West. Bad news from California to Utah where this spring overall looks considerably drier than normal and this is bad news for the upcoming wildfire season.

May 2013

As for May the CFSv2 has temps above normal from the Pacific Coast to Mississippi River while nearer normal to below normal the closer to the Atlantic you go. There is a tongue of cooler than normal poking into the Northern Plains as the model is seeing the continued cool surges diving into the Dakotas as colder than normal air continues well into spring over the Canadian Prairies.

CFSv2_NaT2m_20130402_201305

I largely agree with this model as a dry West will promote a warmer than normal spring overall while troughs will try to drop into the East. The strongest heights compared to normal I believe kick in more during May as the mean ridges build north and pick up on the level of dry soils from California to the West. However, while May looks warm Out West, it looks cool, with the exceptions of this week as the trough which recarves over the West early next week, hangs back. This trough will see cold shots dive into it as there’s a ton of snow over Western Canada and that snow will continue to support very cold air throughout April.

To summarize. A cold April overall for the West, turns on a dim from the Plains on east from this weekend on but a cooldown kicks in late in April as that trough eventually migrates east.

May could start fairly normal to below normal but overall it looks warm Out West, perhaps cooler than normal from the Mississippi Valley on east.

Coming soon.. thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season and my US summer 2013 forecast. Stay tuned.

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