The website went down briefly this morning and when doing so, it unfortunately wiped out both yesterday’s UK and Ireland Regional Forecast and the post I did overnight on the US pattern through next week, so, here’s a fresh and updated post for you and additionally, a video to go with it…

Folks, we have a 180-degree pattern flip coming with potentially a 5-7-day 40 to 50-degree temperature rise coming for Texas between Wednesday and Sunday. If your sick and tired of this cold pattern, change is on the way and perhaps not just temporarily either if the NAO/AO is anything to go by.

Firstly, I want to talk about the deep trough that’s now sank south of the Baltimore-Washington area bringing an early April chill following some decent warmth just yesterday. Highs today will struggle to reach the low 50s in Baltimore-Washington while Philadelphia on north it’s the 40s, inland parts from West Virginia, western Virginia, Maryland up through Pennsylvania and into New York state and it’s 30s for highs. Factor is a stiff and at times, gusty NW wind and knock a good 3-6 degrees of the air temperature. What a difference following a high of 68 yesterday for DC and low 70s a little further south in Richmond, VA. Think it’s cold in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, try the Upper Midwest where highs are stuck in the 20s over North Dakota and low 30s in Minnesota.

With a cold base temperature, tonight will be cold over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Check out these chilly numbers off the GFS.

While we see probably the last true ARCTIC blast with temperatures a solid 10-20 below normal from the Dakotas to Mid-Atlantic with influence into Georgia and the Carolinas later this week, the one feature to really watch is a fairly strong low tracking across the the Southern US, THIS feature is going to be the game changer in coming days! The upper low which will push across Texas will bring a cold soaking to much of the Southern Plains and later in the week to the Southeast and the QPF below prints out a generous amount of liquid to an area which needs the rain (Texas and Oklahoma). As this low slides across, it’s going to really keep things chilly right across the Lone Star state and on the backside, a late season snow looks likely.

Here’s the latest QPF through the next 72 hours.

Just look at the moisture it prints out for Oklahoma down over the heart of Texas as well as along the Louisiana coast.

As for snowfall, the GFS has become quite bullish by dropping a solid 4-8 inch swath from Amarillo to Garden City, whether this is overdone or not remains to be seen. If the below GFS chart happens to be correct then this should surely break quite a few daily and late season snow records for this region.

While it’s impressive to see this snow during early April (but it does happen even on the Southern Plains despite the average temperature well into the 70s now), what’s wild is what follows this snow and temperatures stuck in the 40s and low 50s over Texas and Oklahoma, possibly upper 30s to low 40s over the panhandle during Wednesday if not Thursday.

Here’s the upper chart off the ECMWF for Thursday.

It’s as that upper low slides east across Texas into the Mid-South, a ridge will pump heat from Mexico up into the Western US. This should present low 100s for Phoenix and potentially the first 100-degree day for Las Vegas too with perhaps a near 110-degree for Death Valley. 70s reach all the way north to Denver and Salt Lake City so spring-warmth will advance all the way into the central Rockies and Intermountain West by Friday.

Here’s the upper chart for Friday and notice the ridge with strongest heights and warmest 850s of the year.

It’s as the low tracks into the Southeast bringing rain and thunderstorms from Texas to the Carolinas that the warmth really fires across the West with 80s reaching all the way into central Utah and Colorado while 90s and 100s spread across the Desert Southwest.

Below is the projected Sunday afternoon temperatures according to the GFS.

Notice the heat spreading into Texas, a dramatic rebound compared to the cold rain and snow to be experienced in coming days. Amarillo may go from a high of around 40 Thursday to 95 either late weekend or early next week!

A new low will advance into the West Coast late this weekend and this will push the warm dome east. The timing of all this is slightly later with the models compared to when I wrote my post later last night but all key aspects remain the same. A new trough will get carved out over the Southwest pushing the heat and ridge responsible east into Texas.

In the newer run of the ECMWF (below) you can see the low only now entering Southern California (Monday), later than earlier runs but the main idea remains the same. The GFS remains quicker in bringing the new low and trough into the West which pushes the heat east across the Rockies.

It’s now not till next Wednesday for the trough to get carved out over the West and the hottest air to become focused over Texas. I’m curious to see newer runs as they come in, if it speeds up the upper flow and timing of the ridge-trough pattern. This would also delay the warmth reaching the Eastern US if this proves to be correct. How warm may it get in the East? I believe 70s, even 80s may reach southern Indiana, Ohio, Kenucky into through the Virginias with DC and Baltimore perhaps enjoying their first 80-degree reading of the year late next week.

This will present the chance for the Texas Panhandle to go from 30s and 40s Wednesday/Thursday to the mid-90s either Sunday or early next week while 100s dominate the Rio Grande Valley and West Texas desert for the first time this year.

Finally, as the lead low pushes into the Southeast, it may manage to tap colder air spreading across the far north and if so, don’t be surprised to see rain turn over to wet snow in the central Appalachains and higher elevations of the Northeast Friday into this weekend.

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