When the heck is it going to warm up your asking! We’re tired of all this cold weather? I hear ya. My answer is MID-April. Prepare for 15 more days of unseasonable cold, especially if your living in central Europe and we are done with this. Although there may well be cool spells into May, the real cold will be done and we should only be left with chilly nights under clear skies but by day, you’ll be rejoicing in sunshine and 16-20C weather.
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Pretty much every model I have looked at does not break this cold pattern over Europe including the UK and Ireland for another 10-15 days and while Europe may well have just seen it’s coldest March in a century, it may well be facing it’s coldest first half to an April in many decades also. We most certainly are starting this month cold. When you get into an extreme blocking setup like this, it can be tough to break and that is certainly the case this time around but as I’ve already stated and make no secret of, once this breaks, we may swing the other way and by that I mean, April may end warmer than normal, perhaps presenting us with BBQ oppertunities believe it or not. Just like a rubber band snapping.
Here’s the CFSv2 for April 2013
When breaking this model down for the month, it shows Europe including the UK very cold through the first 10 days of April with departures some 3 to as much as 8F below normal (that’s a 10 day MEAN, wild stuff!) with a break down, then FINALLY a warm-up from around the 15th on but interestingly, it brings back the cold in a less severe fashion after the 20th. The model shows April below normal for Europe, slightly below normal for the southern UK and Ireland, near normal for the northern half including NI and the northern Republic. The first half of the month will be so cold compared to normal that it would take a heat wave during the second half for this month to wind up near or above. In other words, just because it ends up below normal, doesn’t mean it’s cold overall, I strongly believe we see warmth during the second half.
Here’s what the model shows for precipitation.
These blocking patterns tend to bring drier than normal conditions in areas where the cold pool sets up. I posted spring ideas a while back and stated how I believed this spring is likely to be drier than normal. Just look at the above chart and think back to last April! While March was the second coldest on record for the UK, March last year was 3rd warmest and this April could be quite a bit drier than normal whereas last April was the wettest on record. A complete turnaround.
Why I’m saying all this is I believe we broke our super wet pattern back in December/early January with both February and March drier than normal. The last time we saw back to back drier than normal months was back last winter and of course when just as the hosepipe ban was declared, the wet spell kicked in and it stayed very wet throughout the rest of 2012. I believe this dry streak should continue through spring and into summer and so drier, often equals warmer!
The CFSv2 shows average temps for the UK and most of Europe but what about precip, does the dry streak continue?
Ha, it shows wetter than normal for Scotland and Ireland, average for England. Just to throw a spanner in the works.
What about June?
Hum…
So, to conclude, we know April is starting off where March ended and I believe there is a turnaround mid-April with a break in this stubborn pattern but the key aspects to these ideas is more precipitation as this could play a vital role in what kind of summer we get. All in all a drier spring should mean a drier summer and ultimately lengthier warm spells. Near average spring rains and it’s a tougher call, however I am predicting the onset of La Nina this summer and this tends to provide drier than normal conditions to the UK but if it develops, it’s a question of when it’s effects would kick in.
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