Two men start their walk at the snow covered Hole of Horcum on the North Yorkshire Moors (Source: Huffington Post UK)
Snow and ice now dominates the UK pattern as forecast weeks ago but what the question remains, is there more snow on the way and particularly to areas that haven’t seen any yet, and how long will this cold spell last.
In this post I’ll show you the snow potential through the rest of this week and into next with a chance for more western areas getting in on some snow late week and we’ll take a look at what the models are hinting at for the first part of February.
While days are struggling to get above freezing and nights are rather icy and below freezing, the snow showers will continue over eastern parts thanks to an east, northeast wind that’s dragging very cold, continental air across the relatively warm waters of the North Sea. The cold, dry air picks up moisture off the sea and with plenty of cold in place over land, this moisture picked up will bring further snow showers.
Wednesday Night Is On Track To Be Coldest Of Winter, Worse To Follow!
As stated now since last week, the cold itself will and is deepening, helped by the growing snow cover but in between frontal systems, there is a clear slot with clear skies but more importantly, lighter winds and this is the perfect set-up for some very cold nights.
Tonight will be cold again with a widespread frost and ice risk but with highs tomorrow staying at or just below freezing across the majority of the UK, the stage is set for the coldest night yet. Towns and cities will drop to between -4 and -8C while rural areas dropping to between -5 and -10C. Sheltered spots of Northern England, Southern and Highland Scotland will get to between -9 and -14C.
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Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
A frontal system waiting out over the Atlantic will nudge UK-bound Thursday into Friday and this looks likely to bring a decent accumulating snow potential to WESTERN parts of the UK from Cornwall up through Wales, west Midlands, Lancashire, Cumbria and western Scotland. Remembering my post from the weekend in which I showed you the GFS increasing the snow cover and depth over the UK?
The moisture coming in from the west but the cold is deep over land, so this WON’T kick out of the cold and bring milder weather. So, for the more bare western flank of the UK, this is looking good for further spreading out the snow cover.
Here’s the GFS snow 6-hour total accumulations projections for Friday-Saturday.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
GFS projected snow depth by Saturday.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Look for further cold days and even colder nights with the frost and ice risk remaining high. However, once the late week/weekend system passes and lays down more snow, even colder air looks to settle in.
Remember what was said about the ECMWF’s warming this weekend and how this is unlikely to bring a warm-up?
Check out the GFS temperatures for Monday morning, if this is correct, which I think it will be, parts of east Wales, west Midlands, NW England and southern Scotland may plummet to between -14 and -19C.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Stay tuned for a look at the remainder of January/early February pattern in a post around 9.30pm.
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The met office seems to be going for rain in Devon and Cornwall at present for Fri/Saturday, what do you think Mark? Presently +4c in Plymouth at mid day today, I just cant see that it is cold enough for snow here.