CFSv2 Keeps Cold Over UK, Europe Through At Least Mid-February

Written by Mark Vogan on January 15, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The remainder of January looks cold for the UK as well as much of Europe and even looking all the way out to mid-February, this cold pattern looks to be going nowhere. Intensity of the cold will likely fluctuate but overall, there is no real return to mild weather over the next 2-3 weeks and really the month of February is now looking rather cold with more snow to come. Any return of somewhat milder air will likely to be short lived but just days. This is the sort of locked in cold pattern many of us had hoped and dreamed of all winter. I said to be patient and there was plenty of winter on the cards this season compared to last winter.

Even during the ‘coldish’ early part of December, I never believed it would be the real deal and given the setup globally, the period mid-January onwards always favoured the coldest period of the winter.

I know I frequently state how this was forecasted but I see many who jump onto ‘forecasting’ cold when the models are all over it but I try to show you the origin of an evolving pattern right from the word go. The big hint was always the major stratospheric warming event over the pole. When I saw this, I announced colder times ahead before models showed this and before most other forecasters. The timing of these strat warming events and the actual cold hitting came with perfect timing. ‘mid-January’. What excites me is that this pattern looks to bring us a much colder second half to winter, proving my ideas and also blowing most peoples idea that this winter would be mild and like last year.

While the GFS and ECMWF looks cold for the next 20 days from Ireland to Germany, here’s the CFSv2 for the remainder of January and first half of February.

Next 10 days