Map courtesy of The National Hurricane Centre
Tropical Storm Helene
What was once Tropical Depression 7, became Tropical Storm Helene earlier today in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Helene is currently a weak 45 mph storm which will continue to take a northwest track which as you can see from the below forecast track off The National Hurricane Centre would take her into the Mexican coast fairly shortly in which big rains would be the primary threat.
Helene’s close proximity to Mexico means that the storm doesn’t have a lot of time, nor isn’t over the warmest Gulf waters for her to further intensify to any great degree. Dry air is becoming entrained into the circulation from off Mexico too which is keeping the same’s potential intensification at bay.
Storm warning’s have been hoisted between Barra De Nautla and La Cruz on the Mexico east coast and landfall can be expected probably within the next 12 hours or so.
Upwards of 8-14 inches of rain is expected, locally 20 inches over the mountainout terrain of Mexico
As said above, rainfall is going to be the big threat with this system and not much of a wind maker. Highest winds will likely be nearer 60 mph around landfall but with mountains close to the coast, we can expect anywhere from 8-14 inches, locally 20 inches of rain from this system and so flooding and mudslides are likely the biggest concern.
Tropical Storm Gordon
Well, Gordon continues a near due east track at a rapid 20 mph forward speed. Current winds are sustained at around 65 mph but due to interaction with increasingly cooler SST’s as he approaches the Azores, any further strenghening of Gordon is limited and will soon weaken. In saying that, the Azores may still get hit by decent wind of 60-70 mph and rain with perhaps 4-8 inches locally sometime Monday afternoon. After that, I believe Gordon will decay but his remnants may spread rain into Iberia.
What’s most interesting about Gordon is that he appears to be feeding the moisture stream which is currently running all the way up and into the UK and Ireland just now. The heavy downpours we have been experiencing here appears to be fed to a point, by Tropical storm Gordon, several thousand miles away.
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