When Does The Long Lasting Plains Heat Finally Break? A Look At CFS Model

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

The past 6 months have been record warmest for a large swath of the Lower 48 and with drought becoming more and more firmly established over the past couple of months, so the heat has intensified directly over the heart of the nation where the drought is worst. The cornbelt is suffering, just like it did in the 1930s. In fact 2012 is very similar to the Dustbowl years but I stand by the fact that the dustbowl was worse. This has occured before and like any major drought, heat is always the big story.

While long term models have a hot August on the Plains while both coasts are below normal, one must consider the onset of the El Nino and it’s effects as we head down the road.

Yes, it will take a lot more recasting of the atmosphere this time around as compared to normal in order of removing the heat and adding moisture to the soils of the cornbelt but typically, during El Ninos, the Pacific Northwest begins cooling later in summer and by fall, it turns cold over the northern half of the US. Both coasts look to be cooler than normal during August but with such drought and heat over the midsection, the big question is when does this heat and well above normal temperature regime breakdown? I am inclined to say that for at least 3 out of 4 weeks during August it will be well above normal, centred over Iowa but by the September we should start to see the flip. I do believe the heat in parts of the Plains and Midwest may hold into the early fall but the Northern Rockies and Plains could see a cold September-October period with early frosts, freezes and even snows.

The CFS has a warm August over the heart of the drought area but by fall the heat is gone! Also notice the cold Aug-Oct in store for much of interior Canada, the cold fall in southern Canada and the return to near normal for the US.

More to come later!

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