Olympic Weather: Pre-Opening Ceremony Thunderstorms Are Imminent But Question Is Do They Linger? (Video Included!)

Written by on July 26, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

Expected CAPE values over Britain tomorrow evening according to the GFS. Note the greens showing over London (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

I stand by my original forecast for tomorrow in which I believe thunderstorms WILL pep up during the mid to late morning hours onwards as the core of hottest, most humid air over France will get pushed north with mini fronts enhancing the steamy air mass firmly established over the Southeast of England. It’s not only the southbound cold front as it approaches London we need to watch but rather the big thunderstorms the GFS and other models are forming during tomorrow afternoon. The environment is super rich over France with 30C air and high humidity which will get lifted over the channel and into England, with the front drawing that cooler air down and over top, this WILL cause thunderstorms which will drop torrential downpours, bring potentially dramatic lightning and gusty winds. The problem is, the models have big thunderstorms lifting north out over the Channel and may push into the South of England at the same time the front arrives and temps peak at around 27C in central London. This could provide added fuel for stronger storms.

Forecast maximum temps over the UK tomorrow, note the 27C on the south side of London (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

One must keep in mind that this warmth and humidity has been building all week and more often than not, heatwave-like events often end with a bang and I do see this occuring tomorrow, perhaps firstly over the Isle of Wight, Southampton areas before spreading northeastwards towards Greater London during the afternoon after temps have peaked at around 80F (27C).

Big question remains.. does the rain linger into ceremony time?

Unfortunately, quite often once storms have passed there can be lingering rain and cloud cover but this doesn’t always occur so it is very tough to call as to whether we will see rains persistent beyond the time the natural fireworks go off and then die.

By Saturday, the high warms to an average 73 (23C) and by Sunday a cool and BELOW average 68 (20C).

Precip forecast from the GFS shows heavy rains over London at the same time it has highest CAPE values (see top chart) tomorrow evening (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

 

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  1. john says:

    Keep up the Stirling work ….cheers

    John

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