Today’s system which dropped over 2 inches of rain and caused significant and widespread flooding across the Lothians, Fife and Perthshire was one the ECMWF had since July 2. It was a system I kept a close eye on, seeing if it would stay on the models. The ECMWF had this system striking on the 19th but it was amazing to have been picked up by the model nearly 20 days ago and strike within a day of it’s initial forecast. Interestingly, though it was most noticeable on the model as a potentially significant wind event as well as rain, it ended up catching national headlines for it’s flooding rains which caused two trains to derail due to landslides.
This low and it’s stalled front will track south tonight bringing rain to other areas tonight into tomorrow while Scotland will get a chance to dry out somewhat.
Saturday/Sunday is looking warm, dry, sunny across UK but strong wind & heavy rain arrives later Sunday to Scotland
Thursday will see showers rather than heavy, persistent rains in the north and central UK, temperatures will be pegged back a few degrees thanks to a backside northwest flow drawing in slightly cooler air. By the time we get to Friday and into the first half of the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the southwest, introducing warmer air. I believe Scotland will finally get in on some warmer, drier and brighter weather with highs possibly climbing into the low 20s Saturday and possibly mid-20s by Sunday across southern and central areas but as the southwest flow draws heat all the way up from the Azores, a low is deepening to the northwest off Iceland. The front associated with the low which the ECMWF has falling to to 972mb could present Scotland with heavy and persistent rains Monday and Tuesday along with strong winds which may touch gale-force along exposed western areas.
As for England and Wales, temperatures Sunday afternoon, possibly Monday too may touch the upper 20s and by Tuesday the heavy rains sinking south over Scotland will force cooling and a return to the wet weather. On a positive note, the models have this system pushing off to the east by Wednesday with high pressure returning to the UK along with warmth and sunshine.
ECMWF surface/precip chart for Saturday (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)
ECMWF surface/precip chart for Sunday (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)
She looks like a proper nasty storm there at 78 hours!