ANOTHER WARM, MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 14-16C IN SCOTLAND/N. ENGLAND TO 15-18C FROM MIDLANDS TO SOUTHEAST
Tomorrow, like today will see sun and showers but we are likely to be warmer tomorrow following another muggy mid-summer’s night. With a warm/humid airmass to start the day, sunshine which will become more prevalent through the late morning and afternoon filtering will increase the risk of thunderstorms and that is why I’m raising the thunderstorm risk over the heart of the UK to a moderate level. This was outlined back on Monday in my thunderstorm risk outlook that by Wednesday and Thursday we’re likely to see the greatest t-storm risk as the low will pushes into western areas and we see the mid and upper levels cool while the surface air heats.
Like this time last week, we will see the greatest push of warmth and humidity from both the south and off the warm continent to the east thanks to counterclockwise flow around the approaching low from the west.
This is a very similar but not quite as potent of a setup as a week ago. I don’t expect the same intensity of storms given the lower spec of dynamics in the atmosphere, however run energy in and over top of a warm and humid environment and you’ve got some pretty intense, localised storms developing. Rather than the 28C in London last week, we may top 24C but nonetheless, some showers may quickly turn into thunderstorms which of course we must watch for torrential rains and quick flooding on roads etc. Even nearby, high level rivers across England and Wales, pay attention if you live near one and your under heavy showers and thunderstorms.
GFS forecasting heavy central UK rains late Thursday/early Friday (Chart courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)
[error] THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN OVER AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH DEVELOPS AND WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTH OF ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, I’M EXPECTING BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES, LOCALLY 3-4 AND FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONCERN [/error]
During Wednesday and Thursday, the low approaching Ireland will slowly deepen as it pushes into the South of England where it’s stalls. At this point, while warmth builds over the European mainland, the flow turns easterly, drawing this energy over the North Sea and into central and northern Britain, this may aid in the intensification of a front and band of rain on the north side of the low.
The models are in good agreement that this front will creep north Thursday night into Friday and could pose a real risk of further flooding, even FLASH FLOODING as the rains turn heavy and persistent for a long duration. Of course, the April-June period has been historic for rainfall and so with saturated soils, the problem is much greater than otherwise. The exceptionally wet British soils will even provide their out feedback, aiding in further humidifying the lower atmosphere and with warmth added to the mix, the atmosphere is very boiyant and unstable. Lots of fuel for this front to work with.
By the time we reach the weekend, we remain unsettled with plenty of heavy showers around but the trough will deepen as the low eventually kicks out to the east and the flow turns northerly. This will introduce cooler, drier air.
Recent Comments