Sunday Morning Glance At The Long Range Models For The Rest Of Summer & Winter

Written by on July 1, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Well we’ve just ended our first month of meteorological summer 2012 and boy has it not been a dissapointment to all you sun worshippers out there. I think we all could have done with a little more sun, warmer temps and less rain.

I thought I would do a quick post this morning which takes a look at what two long range models are showing for the summer overall and how this runs against what we’ve seen so far. Keep in mind, these models show the the mean temperature over either a month or collection of months. Remember that a hot or cold period within a 30-day period can still average out near normal. A severely cold start could break after the first 10 days and if the rest was below normal, the month could average out near or below normal. That’s the way you’ve got to look at this. So, in other words if these maps show warm for the Dec-Feb period or blue, it doesn’t mean there won’t be cold or warm, even severe cold or warm. It’s all about AVERAGE.

The two models I’ve uploaded here for you are the CFS (Climate Forecast Systsem) and the JAMSTEC (Japanese Long Range Model), both are pretty good and it’s always interesting taking a look at these.

As you can see, the two are in clear dissagreement with the summer. Notice the CFS (top chart) shows near or below normal throughout Europe with clearly below normal over southern parts for the remainder of summer and into the autumn and winter. It has summer’s cool over the areas which have been either normal or above normal temperaturewise so far and has the same areas which were cold last winter, the same for this winter ahead. The Jamstec has a warm look for the period June-August. Unless we start to see a big flip to ridging over western Europe from at least mid-July on, which I don’t see at all, then this will be quite a bust.

This model the bullseye of warmth directly over the Central Plains of the US with cooler on the West Coast and over the Appalachains. So far, to the west of the Rockies, it’s been a lot cooler than that and the Rockies and western Plains have bore the brunt of summer so far but there’s a long way to go. It is also below normal from NYC to Boston.

The CFS has a much cooler look. In fact, notice how it shows no red in the period all the way into next year for Europe. I suspect there will be warmer periods in all regions at some point over the next 6-8 months but certainly where the CFS is concerned, overall, it’s looking largly near normal in the west and south, colder than normal in the east and north of Europe, especially towards autumn and winter.

As for the Jamstec, warmer than normal for much of the globe really, notice the cool over much of Australia and then a turnaround to warm in Australia for summer 2012-2013 as the El Nino supports more high pressure than low pressure over the east and tropical north..

The Jamtec also has colder than normal for Britain and the really much of Europe but nearer normal or above normal centred over Turkey.

All in all, right now I think the CFS is on par more with summer here in the UK. We may get a drier, warmer period come late July into August but I recon this summer may well fall in line with the trend we’ve had going since the turn from warm, dry in 2005-2006 to the dramatic summer floods of 2007. That summer seemed to be the turning point in a multiyear summer cycle we’ve been locked in.

For the Jamstec to be correct about our summer, well I think we need a heatwave soon and according to the 30-day ECMWF, there’s nothing on the hoirzon for July. Regarding the winter, the Jamstec may be more in line than CFS as with the weak or at best moderate nino with warm pool centred over the central Pacific rather than nearer South America, that could help us return to a winter similar toi 2009-10, a worse winter than 2010-11 despite that winter seeing a more severe and longer cold blast through December which ended just after New Year. In 2009-10 there was cold late in December, brought a severe period during the first 10 days of January and then we got repeat blasts of harsh winter weather during February and March, in 10-11 after the coldest December in living memory, winter was over by New Year.

This year, like 2009 has a weak to moderate el nino. In 2010-11, it was a nina.

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