Next Significant Rainmaker Arrives Wednesday For UK, May Linger But Warmth To Follow Around 9-12th? (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 1, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Over the next 72 hours we will see a series of pulses working across Ireland and the British Isles that will enhance the shower activity throughout while we see more organised rain spread into the southwest tonight and work north through Monday.

Tuesday will see more areas of rain with showers elsewhere. As well as the rain, we could also see some pockets of sun develop and this could allow temperatures to rise towards 20C, however that is seriously dissapointing for the start of July.

By the time we get to Wednesday an organising low off to the west of Ireland will sweep a slow moving cold front across Ireland and eventually the UK bringing widespread rain. This will bring persistent rain and this could well pose yet more flooding issues in areas thanks to the saturated soils in many areas. I am concerned about a longlived rainfall and 1-2 inches widely with locally higher amounts, all this accompanied by some pretty stiff winds, perhaps gales along exposed coastal areas.

Upper chart off ECMWF shows low pushing into Ireland on Wednesday (Courtesy of ECMWF)

The ECMWF and GFS paint a rather wet looking UK through Friday as this low will be very slow moving as it may take many days to even cross Britain. The model shows it just off Ireland late Wednesday while Thursday, Friday and Saturday has the system still over the South of England. The precipitation charts show bright colours over many areas indicating heavy and persistent rain and so while the rains are fairly spread out from now through Wednesday, I am concerned about further flooding and quite persistent rain Thursday, Friday and into the weekend.

Another interesting aspect will be whether we see some warmer air spread west as the low positions over the Southern UK. Ridging and warmth will dominate Germany but with the counterclockwise flow around the low, this may pull warmer air into Scotland, perhaps allowing temps towards 21C by say Friday while further south it may only be 16 to 18C beneath the low.

Below are a couple of ECMWF surface charts for Wednesday-Thursday, notice the darker greens and even blues showing up which indicates the heaviest rains.

First rains spreading into the UK during Wednesday according to the ECMWF surface chart (Chart courtesy of ECMWF via AccuWeather Pro)

 

Widespread rains turn heavy later Wednesday according to the ECMWF surface chart (Chart courtesy of ECMWF via AccuWeather Pro)

 

Even during Thursday thanks to the slow movement of the low, there’s plenty of rain to be had, (Chart courtesy of ECMWF via AccuWeather Pro)

Could We Have A Warmer, Drier Spell Around The 10-13th?

I may be clutching at straws but the model for several days now has suggested some suttle ridging pushing into the UK on the backside of this low once it clears to the east. Yes, it will take it’s sweet old time clearing and may even take till the start of next week to do so but there is a ridge and warmer air on the backside of the low and trough and so hoepfully we may see a decent push of warmer air.

In saying that, it may last just a few days given the pattern and what we’ve seen so far. Unfortunately the upper flow is far too fast to allow any try building of heights. The trough tends to always return to the west and the NAO remains negative with little sign of even a return to neautral anytime over the next 2 weeks. That is a big part of our problem.

Below I have included the video I did a few days back which looks at the full month of July.

 

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