Good Afternoon! Hope your enjoying your long Jubilee weekend.

While glancing at the models, we have little to shout about this next 10 days regarding warmth over Ireland, UK and NW Europe as a whole. It’s a different story in southern and eastern parts of the continent where temperatures are rising into the upper 20s and low 30s C and the digging western trough keeps those southwesterlies strong, a constant heat pump.

The trough is now firmly in control of our airspace and this will be a dominant feature through at least midmonth it would appear. That also means the ridge in the east will continue pumping heat from off Africa and ther Middle East Deserts northwards keeping temperature well above normal.

I want to give you a day by day breakdown of what we can expect this week. For those in favour of unsettled and cool weather, you’ll love this. If not, maybe you shouldn’t read the rest..

TODAY/TONIGHT

A small bubble of high pressure in between the low which brought yesterday’s soaking and the next system off to the west will allow a generally dry, bright afternoon and evening for much of Ireland and the UK. Despite any sunshine, temperatures remain near normal or slightly below thanks to low heights aloft, however it should feel fairly warm in direct sunlight and without any wind.

Tonight should remain clear for many though changes loom through the overnight for western Ireland. While towns and cities remain at 5-6C, watch out gardeners in rural northern England and Scotland as temperatures in the countryside may fall low enough (1-2C) for a touch of frost.

TUESDAY

Tuesday morning heralds the return of rain over western areas with the arrival of the next front, associated with a huge low over the N. Atlantic. This rains erratically crosses the UK throughout the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY

While Wednesday is another mostly dull and wet day with temperatures supressed in the low teens, the vast low out in the Atlantic changes character becoming elongated. A complex series of individual lows will continue feeding unsettled weather west to east across Ireland and the UK but it’s during Thursday where we see a bundling or convergence of the energy into one low pressure centre well to the southwest which bears closes attention. This newly formed centre sees pressure drop from near 1000 to 980mb as it works northeastwards pushing into southern Ireland late Thursday or Friday.

The deepening of it’s centre will see it’s windfield tighten and isobars react with the pressure drop. Right now, this situation suggests unseasonable gales for Ireland and the UK during Friday so unless the GFS surface chart is way off, Tuesday and Wednesday’s frequent, off and on rain may be a mere curtain raiser to something bigger coming in off the Atlantic later Thursday. This could be an interesting late week storm which could pack a punch.

Below’s set up surface pressure maps shows the evolution of this week’s setup (Maps courtesy of MeteoGroup)

 

 

 

WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK

While the overall pattern remains very unsettled through the weekend across Ireland and the UK extending up into Scandinavia, we will also be seeing some extreme heat building and expanding from off the Sahara up over the central and eastern Mediterannean. It appears a very intense blast of heat will cover Greece, Turkey up into Bulgaria, Romania up intop the Ukraine and Russia. Upper 30s and low 40s C looks likely.