Don’t see much change in the overall setup across Europe through at least the first 16 days of the month with a negative NAO.
It looks to remain cool with frequent fronts sweeping through along with a constant northwest flow keeping Northwest Europe below normal. While we see a trough drapped over the west, this pumps an eastern ridge, keeping highs 5-15C above normal from Greece, the Blankans, Turkey up through Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Russia.
In between the trough and ridge we have a distinct battleground. This zone marked in the map above will see frequent thunderstorms which could train bringing flooding rains. Damaging winds, lightning, hail, flooding and even tornadoes are possible along this zone stretching from southern France up through Germany/Poland into the Baltic nations.
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