Overview/Summary
For the UK and Ireland, the upcoming Easter weekend sees a battle between Scandinavian high pressure verses Atlantic low pressure.
Initially, the high (still intensifying) over Scandinavia will win the fight, preventing Atlantic weather fronts from progressing eastward.
There appears to be some good cross-model agreement, that the bulk of the long holiday weekend remains largely dry for the majority. That being said, low cloud is likely to affect much of the North Sea coast of both England and Scotland (possibly Irish Sea coasts of Ire, NI) with sunniest conditions further west and here, temperatures will be warmest too.
With the onshore breeze (blowing off waters at their coldest of the year), temperatures will be pegged back at between 7-13C north to south down the coast.
Easter Sunday the warmest day?
As the weekend progresses later Saturday and through Easter Sunday, southerly winds are likely to increase as the Atlantic weather front begins to progress closer to Ireland and the western British Isles. This suggests slight warmer temperatures than Fri/Sat, particularly in NORTHWEST areas of all 4 nations thanks to wind direction and topography.
Weekend breakdown
After a frosty start (+2 to -2C), both Good Friday & Saturday looks largely dry and often bright or sunny for most except for eastern counties of Scotland, England, possibly NI, Ireland due to an onshore breeze. Temps range between 8-10C on the coast to 13-15C inland, possibly 17C in any foehn effect prone areas.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Easter Sunday sees a slight weakening of the Scandinavia high which allows the patiently waiting Atlantic front to edge into western fringes of Northern Ireland and the Republic. While skies cloud over in the west, it remains mostly sunny for the majority of mainland Britain with even eastern counties warming as winds turn from ESE to S, SW.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
While temperatures are likely to warm to between 14-16C widely, 17 or 18C is possible along the north coast of Wales, NW England (Liverpool, Blackpool etc), Northern Ire/Ireland (Antrim, Londonderry, Donegal) and Scotland (Moray coast, NW Highland).
Late Easter day and Easter Monday sees the front progress east bringing a spell of rain and blustery conditions for all. Monday will be 2-5C cooler.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Here’s the GFS ensemble 500mb height and temperature anomaly for the next 5 days!
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
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