Could MJO Help Kick Off Winter? 1st Major Cold Sweeps Asia

Written by on November 3, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The MJO has been in unfavourable phases for cold but change is afoot!

While the MJO is shifting the question will be does that change mean an early kick start to the cold season?

If you look at the below diagram, you can see the MJO (albeit not string) passing through phases 1, 2 and 3 (Africa into the Indian Ocean) and by next week it looks to be entering 4 and 5 (Indonesia).

The below chart confirms the eastward progression of upward motion.

If you look at the CFSv2 weeklies, note the eastward progression in the ridge-trough pattern.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

Hopefully, as we head into the 2nd half of Nov, (particularly 20th on), the tropical forcing is such that we see eastward and northward progression to the entire hemispheric pattern with the N-S oriented block over Canada at the moment shifting to a position over the N Atlantic and Greenland. This ‘in theory’ should develop a locked in twin trough setup, 1 over E North America and the other Western Europe.

Another push on the polar vortex is coming from Siberia…

Tropical Tidbits

Speaking of Siberia we also have our first strong push from the Arctic which is drive bitter cold through Asia and reaching the South China Sea.

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