Like Debby a week ago, Ernesto formed over unusually warm waters at an unusually far north location. About 1,000 miles southeast of Nova Scotia.
Despite crossing the sub-16C waters of the North Atlantic and accelerating in forward sweep, favourable atmospheric conditions allowed the system to remain tropical and only the 12th tropical cyclone within the satellite era to reach 50N. The last ‘still tropical’ system to reach 50N was Alberto back in 2000.
I have found a total of 11 storms that have been tropical farther north than #Ernesto since 1950 (past 50.4N). All are listed on the graphic, and some storms, especially Hope, Unnamed 1971, Faith, Cleo, and Debbie 1961, are pending HURDAT reanalysis. pic.twitter.com/XzJqpWRmMA
— Hank Dolce (@tropicstopics) August 18, 2018
However, as expected, transition to extratropical came this morning as Ernesto was absorbed by a frontal boundary.
The same boundary which swept refreshing Atlantic air across the UK and N France yesterday.
How far north is #Ernesto? It is just about off of the top of the National #Hurricane Center track map! pic.twitter.com/tnld56yMKx
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 17, 2018
There’s good reason why it’s rare for fully tropical systems to survive this far north. 1) upper winds tend to tear apart closed, warm core lows, 2) fronts often reach them before getting anywhere near 50N and 3) waters become too cold.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Looks like a decent soaking and blustery night ahead tonight into tomorrow morning for much of Ireland and through the central swathe of the UK. Expect winds to be gusty and rain torrential at times.
Credit: wxcharts.eu
Credit: wxcharts.eu
Credit: wxcharts.eu
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