This is not a forecast or outlook but more thoughts regarding this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. Today is of course the first day of the season and we’ve already seen Alberto. Not a particularly noteworthy system from a tropical point of view but it helped contribute to the wettest May on record for parts of the Southeast.
Here are the current SSTA’s
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Based on the neutral ENSO and very cool ‘main development region’ of the Atlantic beneath a very warm mid Atlantic, one would argue for a less active season at least in the MDR and off Africa. However, I wouldn’t be too confident just yet in betting those waters remain as anomalously cool as they are currently. After all it’s only June 1 and by August 1, those waters may have recovered. Also, cooler than normal waters DO NOT mean waters are too cool for tropical storms and hurricanes to form. Cool water within the deep tropics can still be 80F.
If these waters remain the way they are, it would likely be due to stronger than normal trades and dry air which then could suggest a lower numbered season here. Again there’s a but. That but is that system could stay weak over the ‘cooler’ part of the ocean but they waken over the anomalous warmth further north.
My concern is for lower than normal numbers within the MDR and off Africa this year but potentially still a lot of development, strengthening nearer land where it be central America, mexico and US were waters are warm.
So, to conclude. The overall season may be near normal with below normal in the tropics but above normal further north with a threat on both Gulf and Atlantic US coasts.
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