This winter has been driven by a +NAO, -AO which has kept things interesting with snow and cold as well as spells of mild.
The NAO appears to remain negative which results in the continuation of a fluid Atlantic pattern.
We’ve seen a pick up in storm activity within the last 10 days resulting in damaging wind over the UK and near continent.
Satellite imagery shows cloud associated with a deep depression, centred to the NE of Scotland, and the shower clouds following (DSRS). pic.twitter.com/myr41bUfE5
— Simon Cardy (@weather_king) January 24, 2018
Retweeted dwnews (@dwnews):
The Dutch are literally being blown away by storm #Friederike ? pic.twitter.com/RJBIHd4CLN https://t.co/Z6r75Cxe7D
— ingo uschner (@ingouschner) January 18, 2018
The current ‘milder’ spell has been triggered by the AO going positive in recent days but it looks set to reverse once again and with the release of polar air back into the mid latitudes it looks like more snow is headed for the UK as the jet stream heads back to a more southerly position transporting lows eastwards further south.
Another low sliding across the British Isles with snow on the northern flank? Still a fair bit out for much confidence in the matter but snow risk charts are starting to light up –> https://t.co/V8Cataa2Qr pic.twitter.com/bpyhMf4CU9
— wxcharts (@wxcharts) January 26, 2018
The front running 5 days looks mild according to the GFS ensemble but note the turn around the following 5-10 days.
CFSv2 weeklies continue to show a blocky cold setup from east to west over Europe mid Feb.
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