El Nino Rapidly Fading But It’s Affects Aren’t, All 3 US Heat Source Regions Cut Off!

Written by Mark Vogan on May 21, 2016 in Spring 2016, United States of America with 0 Comments

There’s been a significant lack of heat across the Lower 48 this month thanks to the continuation of stormy weather and wet ground. We may well be seeing one of the fastest ENSO turnarounds taking place right now with a boiling equatorial Pacific back during the winter to a La Nina as early as next month but it’s atmospheric influence doesn’t fade as fast as the El Nino itself.

It’s been a cold and wet May across the US and it looks as though the remaining 10 days remains unsettled with a lack of major heat as a result.

May temp anomaly to date.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

GFS total precip through next 10 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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The Pacific storm track remains highly active and this supresses the build up of high pressure and hot weather but what’s also worth pointing out is that all 3 of the major heat source regions are currently cut off with a monster trough digging into the Southwest, Texas is saturated and the Southeast is plagued by upper lows, so all 3 hot regions that typically get hot and can push heat wave conditions north, cannot.

The dry ground of the Pacific Northwest, south-central Canada and Northeast are generating their own heat.

The below GFS 500mb height anomaly snapshots show the western trough and weakening troughs exiting Texas and pushing towards the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. The warmth we do see is down to dry ground feedback across the Northern Tier.