May 2016 has been a tail of two halves with the opening 10 days soaked with abundant sunshine and warmth but with a downturn across southern areas as the high pressure core migrated northward of course but it was a much cooler and wetter period from 13th till now. The opening 10-14 days are likely to win and make May 2016 a drier and slightly warmer than normal month overall for the UK. We saw a maximum temperature in the South of 27C in London and impressively, 28C in the NW Highlands.
Interestingly though since the turn to more unsettled, temperatures have failed to get above 20C anywhere in the UK since Friday 13th. Today could make a 10th straight day without reaching 21C (70F).
Europe May temperature anomaly so far. Note the warm north, cool south!
No surprise that it’s been driest where warmest and wettest where coolest.
Last 30 day rainfall anomaly.
Early Met Office stats reveal that the first half of May was significantly drier than normal. A wetter second half will ease this anomaly but unlikely to get it average to above average when we close May.
So What About Summer’s Opening Month?
As we head towards June, it looks as though high pressure is on the way back and likely to present another dry period for the final week of May. El Nino to La Nina transitions often bring large swings between cool, warm, wet and dry. June is likely to provide similarity to May with spells of dry and wet but temperature wise, it could honestly go either way. Huge oceanic oscillation transition within seasonal transition periods can be a nightmare to forecast.
Oceans and their feedback of both warm and cold water plays a significant role but the true ocean to atmosphere feedback often doesn’t come till mid and late season but like in winter.
These are the current SSTA’s.
Note in the North Atlantic we have warmth surrounding Greenland and north of the UK, generally cool from North Sea to Newfoundland. Colder than normal waters often reflect above normal heights during the warm season and warm water, below normal heights.
Here’s the CFSv2 weeklies which takes us out to mid-June. Strong consistency with this model building a strong ridge between Iceland and Scandinavia which supports a drier and warmer north, cooler and wetter south between Norway and Spain.
2m temperatures reveal of warming trend, centred over Scotland thanks to the HP core centred between Iceland and Norway.
The CFSv2 weeklies indicate a dry start but turn to wetter week 3-4.
Below is the CFSv2 forecast for June 2016. Mean ridge centred over the UK but below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.
500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
To conclude, I believe June will have similarity to May in which we often on a settled and warm note but a turn to more unsettled and therefore cooler through the 2nd half of the month.
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