FREE United States May 2016 Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by Mark Vogan on April 22, 2016 in Spring 2016, United States of America with 0 Comments

April has been a mixed month across the United States with incredible cold over the Great Lakes and East, major snow in the Rockies and summer-like warmth over the Pacific Northwest. Only brief tastes of summer elsewhere.

Let’s of course not forget the astonishing rainfall of late in the Houston, TX area, this wet ground will play a part in the climatic pattern as we head into early summer.

The below temperature anomaly for April so far says it all with warm West, cool to cold East.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

With the likely continuation of the negative Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations in the midst of a weakening El Nino and transition into a La Nina with cold waters already appearing against the South American coast, I suspect May should be driest, warmest across Canada and the Northern Tier of the US. The likely continuation of the southerly storm track should support wetter and therefore slightly below normal temperatures from Southern California to Carolinas.

ao_fcst

nao_fcst

I believe there’s one more ‘arctic brand’ cold shot to drop into the East followed by more typical late spring intensity cool shots. The cold across Northern Canada combined with strong Alaska to Greenland blocking is certainly supressing the true northward advance of summer warmth but this will eventually arrive and likely mid to late May across the country.

I agree with both the CFSv2 and Canadian monthly solutions on May below.

CFSv2