Surge Of May On The Way As California Gets Ready To Soak Following June-Like February!…

Written by Mark Vogan on March 1, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

Firstly, here’s a look at the end of the week/weekend Mid-Atlantic snow event according to the GFS.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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Reason I skip quickly through the end of the week snow is because this will be dwarfed by what follows and I cannot get away from this.

The amount of warmth lifting north and east across the country, especially day 6-10 is very impressive. Temps probably more typical of late April/early May.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Going by the models, I recon low to mid 70s isn’t out of the question for Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York and Boston.

Severe weather potential is also likely to go through the roof early next week with the amount of heat and moisture lifting out of Mexico and Gulf of Mexico.

Very Wet/Active Pattern For California After June-Like February

The conga line is aligned with the West Coast and ready to unleash!

rb-animated

As well as the heat, the other big weather story coming up is the amount of liquid piling into California over the next 10 days. 24 inches of liquid and 200 inches of snow quite possible.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This MUCH wetter pattern follows a February that’s been more like June and 2nd warmest February on record for Los Angeles.

With regard to the SSWE, I understand that orientation of warming is crucial as to where ridges pop in the higher latitudes, after all, the last THREE straight winters have favoured an Alaska/Arctic Canada ridge but Icelandic trough, hence colder Eastern US/Canada and warmer but stormier UK and Western Europe.

So, one could argue that the cold may favour Europe and not so much the US this month.

50mb temp

Initial

gfs_t50_nh_f00

7 days from now

gfs_t50_nh_f168

10 days from now

gfs_t50_nh_f240

However, it’s going to get interesting to watch the period March 15-31 as we know there’s typically a 6-10 days lag in response from arctic to mid latitude. We shall see.

See video for the discussion.

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