Rains are easing but incredibly still falling over parts of the Carolinas. Incredibly, close to 30 inches of rain has fallen between Friday and Monday. It was the ‘perfect storm’ scenario with no single player to blame but 3 to 4, even 5 components all coming together perfectly.

Conway High School, SC

Joaquin in my opinion is a getting too much credit as many are overlooking the broader picture including the unusually warm water, the behaviour of the stalled front, the potency of the upper low spinning through the Southeast that was slowed by an unusually strong upper ridge that was building south down the East Coast. Then there was a high octane tropical moisture machine that was Joaquin.

North Charleston, SC (before and after)

THE UPPER AIR, STALLED FRONT AND SYSTEM WHICH FORMED ALONG THAT FRONT BROUGHT ALREADY RECORD RAINFALL AND THEN THE SAME PATTERN FUNNELLED JOAQUIN’S MOISTURE PLUME STRAIGHT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. Upper low to WSW, upper high to the N and E meant that’s Joaquin’s moisture had nowhere to go but straight into the Carolinas.

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…SEVERAL RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON…

CHARLESTON AIRPORT /NORTH CHARLESTON SC/ RAINFALL RECORDS

GREATEST 1-DAY RAINFALL…..11.50 INCHES SET ON OCT 3 2015

OLD 1-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…10.52 INCHES SET ON SEP 21 1998

GREATEST 2-DAY RAINFALL…..14.31 INCHES SET ON OCT 3-4 2015

OLD 2-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…11.10 INCHES SET ON JUN 10-11 1973

GREATEST 3-DAY RAINFALL…..15.92 INCHES SET ON OCT 2-4 2015

OLD 3-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…11.95 INCHES SET ON JUN 9-11 1973

GREATEST 4-DAY RAINFALL…..17.29 INCHES SET ON OCT 1-4 2015

OLD 4-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…16.56 INCHES SET ON JUN 7-11 1973

GREATEST MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL..17.29 INCHES THROUGH OCT 4

OLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL…….12.11 INCHES SET IN 1994

5 WETTEST MONTHS ON RECORD

1) 27.24 INCHES IN JUN 1973

2) 18.46 INCHES IN JUL 1964

3) 17.31 INCHES IN SEP 1945

4) 17.29 INCHES IN OCT 2015 ** NOTE: ONLY 4 DAYS OF RAIN THUS FAR

5) 17.24 INCHES IN AUG 1940

DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON RAINFALL RECORDS

3RD HIGHEST 1-DAY RAINFALL…..9.25 INCHES ON OCT 3 2015

HIGHEST 1-DAY RAINFALL………10.38 INCHES ON JUN 11 1973

TIED FOR HIGHEST 2-DAY RAINFALL….11.74 INCHES OCT 3-4 2015

PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED…………….JUN 10-11 1973

GREATEST 3-DAY RAINFALL…..13.80 INCHES SET ON OCT 1-3 2015

OLD 3-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…12.39 INCHES SET ON JUN 9-11 1973

GREATEST 4-DAY RAINFALL…..16.29 INCHES SET ON OCT 1-4 2015

OLD 4-DAY RAINFALL RECORD…13.80 INCHES SET ON JUN 7-11 1973

GREATEST MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL..16.29 INCHES THROUGH OCT 4

OLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL…….11.74 INCHES SET IN 1959

 

Current road and bridge closures due to flooding.

What a turnaround for what was an increasingly dry Southeast a week ago!

A Colder Than Expected October?

As we head deeper into October, snow will grow across northern Canada and therefore so will the cold. Winter is well underway across the Arctic with snow cover expanding.

What’s interesting is the month of October for the US was expected to be warm through the first half with a turn to colder through the second half.

Here’s the CFSv2 forecast for October.

Here’s how it’s looking through the opening 5 days. Rather cool.

What’s also interesting is that as the NAO and AO both go back negative this week after a brief spell of positive and snow and cold continues to expand.

There’s an increasing chance that the cooler, not warmer than normal pattern will continue for particularly the Central and Eastern US and the models do have an Alaskan high building while a trough dives into the Midwest and East in response. Unlike September, October looks likely to be cooler than normal.

GFS operational

GFS ensemble

EPS Control

See video for more.

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Tags: joaquin, joaquin south carolina, record flood, record rain, south carolina flood, southeast flood