After a prolonged and persistent pattern in which low pressure with frequent spells of cool, wet and at times windy conditions dominated Northwest Europe and high pressure with dry, hot conditions over much of the continent, we appear to have a change in the upper air pattern as we approach autumn 2015’s first month.
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Quite often, especially during major events such as El Nino, we can have a different response between ocean and atmosphere when the seasons change and that looks to be the case. Just like we saw back in March and April when we had sustained dry, settled and at times warm conditions here in the UK, we may have something very similar late August and through much of September.
Welcome news for those in Scotland and Ireland who have suffered a pretty dismal summer.
The CFSv2 is showing a warmer and drier September with ridging, like we saw in spring, further west. It’s looking wetter further south but the question is, do we see the warmer, drier than average conditions persist over central and eastern Europe? Dry ground may hold onto this warmth well into autumn but with a different height field, it may be closer to average than during much of the summer.
Latest CFSv2 weeklies.
Temperature anomaly.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Latest CFSv2 for September.
500mb height anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Since it’s only mid August, use these charts with caution.
No video today. Next update will be available Monday morning.
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