As we head for the fall, the influence of El Nino (already a big player) will only grow stronger. While many including myself ask whether the warm pool in North Pacific or equatorial Pacific wins out, it’s going to be interesting just how wet this winter will be in California.
The US has already experienced significant influence with cooler, wetter than normal conditions over California and Southwest while warmer and drier in the Pacific Northwest.
While drought worsens and water shortages spread across the Caribbean.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
The Southern Plains has seen the classic El Nino flip with a wet spring, early summer to drier and warmer late summer. The lack of rain and increasing heat has even brought the return of drought conditions, less than a month after the long term 4-year drought was declared over.
The heat has certainly been impressive across Texas of late thanks to the drier pattern.
The dry Caribbean, wet start to summer and dry end in Texas, cooler, wetter for California and Southwest is very fitting of strong El Ninos and NOT GLOBAL WARMING, although earth’s temperature does rise with El Ninos.
Focus of cool and wet has been over the breadbasket of the nation up into the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Current El Nino situation
Comparison between 1997 (left), 2015 (right).
Interestingly the CFSv2 shows the return of much wetter than normal conditions for Texas and South into fall.
As for winter, well strong El Ninos typically look like this.
But as previously stated, this is not your typical El Nino, albeit strongest since 1997.
If this El Nino is on par with 1997-98 then I suspect a very wet winter is on the way for California.
Article from AccuWeather.com
Will a ‘Godzilla El Nino’ Help Bust the California Drought?
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
August 14, 2015; 4:09 PM ET
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service suggests that a “Godzilla El Niño” may be on the way this winter.
However, how much rain and snow California as well as other areas along the West coast receive will be dependent on the interaction between El Niño and other conditions in the northern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is the warm part of a warm/cool cycle of ocean water temperatures in the tropical Pacific that spans several years.
All other conditions being average, a strong El Niño tends to fortify the winter storm track over the northern Pacific and can allow strong storms, loaded with moisture to blast onshore over the West Coast of the United States.
In order for there to be a strong storm track, there needs to be a large temperature contrast from north to south. Here lies the potential problem for forecasting once-in-a-lifetime storms in California this winter.
Waters over the northern Pacific, particularly from Alaska to California, are also warm. The cycle in this part of the Pacific takes many years to run its course.
The effect of the warm waters in the northern Pacific could counteract some of the impacts of a strong El Niño. This winter’s El Niño could become the strongest in more than 50 years.
According to Long Range Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani, “The wrath of storms produced during the record El Niño of 1997-98 occurred when waters over the northwestern Pacific were cool, not warm like we are seeing now.”
Warmer-than-average waters in the northern Pacific tend to pull the storm track farther north, while El Niño tends to pull the storm track farther south.
RELATED:
2015 US Fall Forecast: Fire Danger to Worsen in West; September May Yield Tropical Impact in South
California Ahead of Hefty Water Cutback Requirement Despite Record Heat in June
El Nino May Intensify Into Strongest in 50 Years
What may happen in California this winter is that more modest storms could deliver episodes of soaking rain, rather than many storms with torrential rain, yards of snow in the mountains, damaging winds and major flooding.
While moderate storms with less flooding rain and damaging winds would be good news for property owners and commuters, it would take several blockbuster storms to build snow levels significantly and fill reservoirs in order for more lasting drought-relief.
AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok stated you have to go back many decades before you can find a similar setup to what we believe will transpire this winter.
“The 1957-58 El Niño is the closest match to conditions we are seeing now and what may happen this winter,” Pastelok said.
For example, in Los Angeles the total rainfall for the year in 1958 was 15.43 inches, compared to 27.06 inches in 1998 and the normal of 12.82 inches.
Since rainfall deficits are currently extremely large in California, the tradeoff may be that near- or slightly above-average rainfall occurs and the drought is still intact by the end of the winter, but perhaps just not as extreme.
In many locations of California, the rainfall deficit ranges from 1-2 feet below average since July 1, 2013.
People will still need to keep conserving water and be prepared for significant and disruptive storms this winter.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, “The challenge meteorologists face this winter is the pattern is much more complex than whether or not there is an El Niño with big storms.”
The realm of possibilities this far in advance ranges from a spray of storms along the coast from California to Mexico and minimal drought relief to relentless storms in a narrow zone producing flooding.
Until El Niño storms and rain kick in this winter, wildfire conditions will continue to worsen over much California into this fall.
See video for today’s discussion.
[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Recent Comments