Cold UK Summer 2015 In Midst Of Globe’s Warmest Year On Record?

Written by Mark Vogan on July 22, 2015 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2015, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

While there’s a LOT of hysteria about 2015’s opening 6 months being the warmest on record, you can clearly see the influence of the cold North Atlantic’s cooling influence on the atmosphere above and downwind over Ireland and the British Isles. Sure enough, once inland over continental Europe it’s warmer than normal. The strengthening El Nino WILL rise the global temperature but the big question is, how much can we really trust the data?

Here’s the still image of the global surface temperature anomaly through the first half of 2015.

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According to NOAA both May and June was warmest on record globally, hum, I’m pretty sure Ireland, UK and Scandinavia was below normal and the below charts for both May and June don’t really show it.

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Certainly doesn’t look as cool around here as the below charts show.

This was May and June via WSI Energy.

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June

WSI Energy

The Met Office confirmed that we experienced the coolest May since 1996 here in the UK and June too was cooler than normal.

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This is summer 2015 so far.

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Again look at the swath of cool extending from the North Atlantic over the UK into Scandinavia, warmer than-normal over Southern, Central Europe where the ground is drier and water temps are above normal.

Interesting to see how we’re experiencing a -NAO summer while the same SSTA profile supports the opposite in winter and I suspect we’ll have a firmly positive NAO in winter 2015-16.

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There is indeed well above normal SSTA’s surrounding Greenland, supporting the below 500mb height anomalies.

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The warm vs cold anomaly contrast within the North Atlantic alone, never mind against the Pacific is remarkable. A once in a lifetime event perhaps?

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As I say, El Nino’s, particularly strong ones always lead to a rise in global temperature, especially when you compared Pacific SST’s between Nov 1997 and July 2015 but is this right?

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Is our planet as warm as some would make out? There’s very little mention about the rise in summer sea ice in the arctic since 2013 when the Atlantic started cooling, right around the peak of solar max 24 and the Atlantic remains cool, even cooler than back then… Anyone can alter a chart right? Let’s face it, those promoting global warming are jumping all over this nino to shout WARM, WARM, WARM and yes it’s warmer but warmest ever? If the data for our tiny region of the planet isn’t matching up, what else isn’t?

I don’t see much change in August and in the nearer term pattern where Atlantic lows shall continue to keep us looked in a cool, often wet and disappointing regime.

Here’s the latest GFS surface through the next 9 days. No heat wave looms!