Tag: ENSO
Welcome to my 11th annual UK, Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which I have taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as other factors including current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature […]
US: ‘Strong El Nino Pattern’ Very Evident Into December But More Northern Blocking January/February?
Now and on into next week, the strongly +AO/NAO will continue to drive a powerful and very zonal upper flow pattern around the mid-latitudes with an El Nino enhanced, hose-like southern branch that’s essentially pumping tropical energy northward into the middle latitudes. This means a continued active but largely mild pattern across North America. The GFS […]
Up until the 20th of the month, October has been dry across the UK and Ireland with many places receiving barely 20% of normal rainfall. As for temperatures, well after a warm start, the average is now back below normal thanks to a persistent northerly high pulling air in from Russia. Change has indeed arrived with a more typical, […]
I’m continuing to find my feet here in the new house. The good news is I now have broadband up and running, however the main computer has yet to get setup, largely due to no computer table and really since Friday, I’ve been snowed under. I’ve more time tomorrow (Thursday) and hope to get the my PC […]
As we head for the fall, the influence of El Nino (already a big player) will only grow stronger. While many including myself ask whether the warm pool in North Pacific or equatorial Pacific wins out, it’s going to be interesting just how wet this winter will be in California. The US has already experienced significant […]
While there’s a LOT of hysteria about 2015’s opening 6 months being the warmest on record, you can clearly see the influence of the cold North Atlantic’s cooling influence on the atmosphere above and downwind over Ireland and the British Isles. Sure enough, once inland over continental Europe it’s warmer than normal. The strengthening El Nino […]
Today Marks Summer 2015’s Half Way Point And Atlantic Is Very Much Driving Europe’s Summer (& Year)!
Today marks the mid way point of summer 2015 and it’s very apparent that the ocean and it’s cold and warm anomalies are reflecting the land temperature and precipitation distribution anomalies this year. Where surrounding waters are cold and the ground is wet, it’s cool overall and where waters are warm and ground is dry, it’s warmer than normal, […]
We have significant pattern changes underway across the Lower 48 as the atmosphere responds to time of year, the strong El Nino in the Pacific and the increasing amplification of the MJO, a reaction of the El Nino. As we go from day 1-5 to the 6-10, heights sharply rise over the Northwest and in turn […]
The abnormally warm eastern Pacific waters, while driving a warm West and cold East winter the past 2 years, it’s now responsible for getting the 2015 East Pacific Hurricane Season off to a record start by spawning two major hurricanes already. It’s also been responsible for the mega Southern Plains drought buster and brought a weirdly cool, wet May […]
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