El Nino, MJO Increasing Influence On US Pattern/ Pacific Cyclone Production Into July

Written by on June 23, 2015 in Spring 2015, Summer 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments

We have significant pattern changes underway across the Lower 48 as the atmosphere responds to time of year, the strong El Nino in the Pacific and the increasing amplification of the MJO, a reaction of the El Nino.

anomnight_6_18_2015

As we go from day 1-5 to the 6-10, heights sharply rise over the Northwest and in turn they collapse dramatically in the east with the demise of the Southeast heatwave currently in place. This setup will have a seesaw effect driving temps 10, 20 possibly close to 30 ABOVE normal over the PNW while it may sends temps 5-10 BELOW normal in the SE where it’s been so warm of late.

A strong wave 1 of the MJO pulse is now pushing into the W Pacific, expect a sharp increase in tropical activity as a result.

Credit: Michael Ventrice / WSI Energy

Credit: Michael Ventrice / WSI Energy

The MJO is going from phase 5 into 6 and look at the cooling over a large swathe of the country including the East as a result. The exception being the West.

ensplume_small

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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: WeatherBug

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Take a look at the CFSv2 weeklies… See the similarity?

1-5 day

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

6-10 day

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

850mb temp anomaly difference between now and 144 hrs.

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 2 metre temp anomalies

1-5 day

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

6-10 day

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan /Tropical Tidbits

Then as we head further out in time, the model shows a suspiciously cool look and lack of any real warmth well into July.

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

As for increased convection and tropical development potential, I suspect mid to late July will see the window open once again in the western Atlantic basin.

cfs

For those living in the Southeast, don’t fret the sweat. Your cooling down big time later this week into next but in the Northwest, get ready!

See video for the discussion. Will have my July Outlook up tomorrow. Stay tuned.

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