We have significant pattern changes underway across the Lower 48 as the atmosphere responds to time of year, the strong El Nino in the Pacific and the increasing amplification of the MJO, a reaction of the El Nino.
As we go from day 1-5 to the 6-10, heights sharply rise over the Northwest and in turn they collapse dramatically in the east with the demise of the Southeast heatwave currently in place. This setup will have a seesaw effect driving temps 10, 20 possibly close to 30 ABOVE normal over the PNW while it may sends temps 5-10 BELOW normal in the SE where it’s been so warm of late.
A strong wave 1 of the MJO pulse is now pushing into the W Pacific, expect a sharp increase in tropical activity as a result.
The MJO is going from phase 5 into 6 and look at the cooling over a large swathe of the country including the East as a result. The exception being the West.
TOP IMAGE CREDIT: WeatherBug
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Take a look at the CFSv2 weeklies… See the similarity?
1-5 day
6-10 day
850mb temp anomaly difference between now and 144 hrs.
CFSv2 2 metre temp anomalies
1-5 day
6-10 day
Then as we head further out in time, the model shows a suspiciously cool look and lack of any real warmth well into July.
As for increased convection and tropical development potential, I suspect mid to late July will see the window open once again in the western Atlantic basin.
For those living in the Southeast, don’t fret the sweat. Your cooling down big time later this week into next but in the Northwest, get ready!
See video for the discussion. Will have my July Outlook up tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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