Recent posts/videos have very much focused on the amount of liquid projected across the Deep South. With a warmer warm east Pacific and Gulf, rainfall is likely to be enhanced, especially as the El Nino gets going.
Latest infrared images are showing a very ‘El Nino’ look with enhanced convection on a very pronounced southern branch or sub-tropical jet streaming from the equatorial Pacific across Mexico and into the Southern US.
Credit: NOAA
Credit: NOAA
Credit: NOAA
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The sub-tropical jet is very active and enhanced by warmer than normal waters. This is leading me to believe that an abnormally wet pattern is developing and for the longer term.
This was the soggy scene in Biloxi, Mississippi yesterday.
Credit: Sun Herald
A strong indicator of El Nino’s increasingly EASTERN presence is the rainfall anomalies for the last 30 days. Via Anthony Sagliani.
Note how dry it is over the maritime tropics of Asia while wetter than normal into South America and Central America, Mexico and the Southern US.
Credit: NOAA
The cooler, eastern trough pattern will help enhance the Southern rains next 10-15 days.
Credit: NOAA
Credit: NOAA
CFSv2 surface temp anomalies week 1-4
The warmth of the SST’s and colder than normal mid and upper level upper enhances the baroclinic zone and the sub-tropical jet which in turn enhances convective rainfall.
QPF next 10 days
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
CFSv2 precip anomalies week 1-4
With that cool, forget about a ramp up in the near record quiet tornado season.
Credit: NOAA
In fact the way things are going, we could break the record into May!
Expect the dry across the Northern Tier to intensify as will the heat I suspect while wet ground leads to further rain in the South.
CFSv2 precip
Notice how ‘wetter than normal’ shuts down mid summer in the Mid-South as seasonal feedback kicks combined with the continued strengthening of the El Nino but then returns into fall. California will get dry into summer but then turn increasingly wet Sept onwards!
See video for more.
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