It’s a cold, blustery and for some, wintry open to spring 2015. We have a fairly brisk W wind going at present with origins extending all the way back to Arctic Canada so it’s a polar-maritime air mass in place. This is bringing fresh snowfall to higher elevations of Scotland, Northern Ireland and N England. Through tonight, further pulses of shower activity and reinforcing ‘cold air’ move in and this MAY support snow and light, slushy accumulation to lower levels as the atmosphere naturally cools after sunset which is now close to 2 hours later than Dec 31.
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While snow in March is by no means uncommon, accumulation becomes more difficult at lower levels since the sun angle is higher and therefore stronger and in turn the ground is warmer.
The opening 72 hours of March will certainly have a wintry flavour across Northern parts of the UK in particular. The next low dives in Monday and with tightening of pressure again, winds increase, driving in colder air and more wintry showers with mix at low levels. Overnight hours provides the best chance at low level snow.
The next 72 hours will see the continued cold WNW flow with increase in wind speeds Mon-Tue as low pressure makes it’s closest approach but snow levels will fluctuate, reaching low levels tonight. Significant accumulation is possible at high level road routes.
GFS snow through 72 hours.
Things settle during the mid week period as high pressure builds in, ‘pumped’ and shunted east thanks to the presence of a deep low coming off Canada.
Back late last week I made mention about the potential colder setup with high pressure building WEST or NORTH of the UK, modelling now has that high more centred on the South Coast of England which means the milder scenario again I first alluded to. In saying that, I mean milder days because clear skies, light winds by night means cold, frosty nights.
GFS ensemble shows the MEAN ridge position OVER and not N or W of the UK.
I’m still unsure about how March will go but the CFSv2 has a strong positive NAO signal with Atlantic trough/UK ridge.
Be sure to watch today’s video as well as read and watch the Friday post and video which looks at the longer term climatic influences driving our summers and winters.
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