What a difference a day makes. The new air mass is in and I expect to see rain spread across Scotland during the course of today.
This morning’s view!
Credit: Mark Vogan
Yesterday morning!
Credit: Mark Vogan
Quite a change particularly in the north this weekend.
Source/Credit: Crown & Met Office
FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEE YESTERDAY’S WRITE-UP AND VIDEO!
I want to take a brief look at the pattern we’ve seen so far and not just in the last 2-4 weeks but really since the beginning of the year. The reason, it’s clear to see that our large-scale HEMISPHERIC pattern pretty much remains the same despite a difference season.
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North America continues to feel the effects of it’s coldest winter since 1996. Hudson Bay remains largely ice covered still while the Great Lakes is far colder than normal and with warm water persisting over the Gulf of Alaska, the ridge/trough pattern hasn’t really changed all that much from back last winter. The only real difference is the very anomalous warm water immediately off the Eastern Seaboard is keeping it warmer than normal up the EC but back westwards into the Ohio Valley into the Plains and it’s cooler than normal. If you’ve been following my US posts and videos, you’ll know that a MAJOR cold trough is ready to descend south into the VERY AREA which saw the strongest cold last winter.
It’s almost a summertime version of the much talked and hyped about, polar vortex!
Why am I showing you this since you live in Europe? Well for us, winter was warm and the spring and summer so far remains with the same trend into the first half of summer. The US and Europe pattern is holding and has held pretty much since the end of last year. A cold North America, warm Europe.
The latest graphic produced by the Met Office pretty much says it all.
Source/Credit: Crown & Met Office
It’s ironic that June 2014 was the warmest June since 2006 given that last July was the warmest July since 2006.
Here’s July so far across Europe.
I must admit, I was surprised to see parts of the UK BELOW AVERAGE through the first 11 days of this month but notice the big POSITIVE departures over central and northern parts while it’s below average in more southern parts.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
The CFSv2 has been spot on for June and July so far!
Check out the below forecasted 2-metre temp departure charts for June and July issued back in April 20. Shown on my official summer forecast. Compare this to the actual data for July so far…
June
July
As stated already, a large chunk of the US has been colder than normal since the turn of 2014 but it’s opposite for most of Europe (not for all, example, Spain)
GLASGOW
Jan +2.0
Feb +1.8F
Mar +1.4F
Apr +1.9F
May +0.7F
June +1.7F
STOCKHOLM
Jan +0.5F
Feb +8.5F
Mar +7.7F
Apr +3.0F
May +0.4F
June -3.1F
A large part of the season for this accumulative warmth I believe is down to the current ocean temperature pattern and the peaking (albeit weak) of solar cycle 24 but now that we’ve rounded the bend, do we have a crash on the way?
THE RUBBER BAND EFFECT: BIG ATMOSPHERIC TURNAROUND?
While the entire Northern Hemispheric pattern almost appears stuck in a rut, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens as we head towards the cooler season of autumn. Usually when you get a prolonged spell of warm, something eventually snaps the rubber band.
Take the all-time record breaking Russian heat wave of 2010 for example. They absolutely boiled that summer than then endured one of the coldest winter’s on record. Just like an atmospheric rubber band snapping.
While this is no summer like then or for us, 2003 when the UK endured it’s hottest weather in recorded history, but this long duration warmth that’s covered pretty much all our continent will eventually break and if the atmosphere responded something similar to what we saw following that big Russian heat wave, then some MUCH COLDER weather would follow this seemingly endless warmth.
The big question I ask is, when does the warmth break and do we get enough DOWNTURN in the solar cycle following the weak max back in Feb for us to cool proper. The warm Gulf of Alaska and strong westerly QBO favoured a cold North America, warm Europe last winter and while the GOA remains warm, the weaker and more easterly QBO should favour more N Atlantic blocking and full-scale strat warming events this upcoming winter compared to last.
This may support a very different winter in 2014-15 for us but I have a heck of a lot more study ahead to try and figure out all the various aspects. This summer and last played out very well in terms of my long range forecasts but I don’t want to get burned for a 2nd and to lesser extent 3rd straight winter by calling for cold when it may not be.
Source/Credit: Crown & Met Office
Will discuss further the QBO and other drivers as we progress through the next couple of months.
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It’s difficult to say. I am going to be looking into EVERYTHING over the next few months before making a call on winter. If I’m being honest, despite some aspects suggesting change and colder for us, I fear more dominant aspects may override cold prospects. Perhaps keeping us mild but will post plenty on this. Trust your well.
Well, we will have to wait and see when we head into the Autumn and have a clearer idea of what may happen down the road.
How likely do you think it is that this pattern could continue into the upcoming winter,
Mark? Could we risk another mild winter here in Europe, while Northamerica is in for another big freeze or do you suspect a change down the road? I know it’s early to say anything about it. But I just think it’s interesting to see that the pattern hasn’t changed very much since last winter.