WESTERN EUROPE: Disturbances Keep The Warm, Dry Pattern Tolerable!

Written by Mark Vogan on July 11, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

After a seemingly endless period of cool, wet or very wet summers (between 2007 and 2012) here across Ireland and the UK, we’re now enjoying our 2nd straight warmer, drier than normal summer with high pressure rather than low pressure the dominant player. Why the shift? Perhaps the shift is wehere it’s warm and cold over the North Atlantic. This year is the first in quite some time that the AMO has shifted slightly cold.

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The good thing about the pattern this summer is that we do have passing disturbances which is keeping the warm, sunny conditions more tolerable and by that I mean we’re getting brief breaks in between a pattern largely dominated by high pressure.

The difference between this July and last is the ridge core sat pretty much overhead, therefore completely shutting the door of cooling systems from coming in, this year the ridge is offset enough that systems bring a glancing blow with cloud and rain but the entire system doesn’t move in and hold.

Last summer we saw a 4 to 6 week spell where heat was dominant. Day after day with highs in the 25-30C range and when you don’t have air conditioning, that sustained warmth begins to take a toll, especially in your brick house where heat builds but cannot escape. The longer you see 25C+ day after day, the more your house inside heats up and doesn’t cool even if it cools off nicely outside.

So, as far as I can see, the models are clear on another week where disturbances move in and move out. Like it cloudy and damp, well you’ll get that, like it warm and sunny, you’ll get that too…

Be sure to check out the video just posted for more.

Here’s the charts shown in this morning’s video.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

It’s been particularly warm of late over northern Germany, Netherland, Denmark up into southern Norway and Sweden. Check out these highs from yesterday! Here in Glasgow it reached 25C and we should get close to that again today before the rain spreads in from the west during tomorrow.

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Positive NAO for the second half of the month suggests the pattern remains the same if not high pressure and warmth may become somewhat more sustained…

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