Model Consensus Points To More Trough Than Ridge Over W Europe Next 2 Weeks

Written by Mark Vogan on July 4, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s certainly been warm down across Southern parts of the UK while there’s a much fresher feel further north thanks to the passage of the first front. The second, more pronounced front is now pushing down through Scotland, northern England into Wales but before that system reaches the Southeast, it will turn borderline hot. As stated much of this week, I expect to see a high close to 29 or 30C around London this afternoon before some very wet, blustery conditions arrive this evening and overnight.

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With low pressure firmly in control this weekend across the UK, expect heavy downpours accompanied by bright sunshine in between.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface chart for this weekend.

That SSE tracking frontal system attached to the low up over Iceland, will present a lot of rainfall with 2″ likely over the Southern Uplands and Cumbrian Fells.

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As we head into next week, the ECMWF continues with the unsettled them through much of the upcoming 7 days with more embedded lows sinking into an Iceland to France trough while the ridge stays put to our west out over the Atlantic.

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Like yesterday, the GFS disagrees with the low pushing south and east and high pressure builds in through the second half of next week.

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While the GFS operational brings back the ridge to the UK and western mainland of the continent, the ensemble 7-day mean 500mb heights holds onto a trough. TOUGH forecast!