Hurricane Arthur continues to batter North Carolina’s Outer banks after making landfall between Cape Lookout and Beaufort around 11.15pm ET with winds of 100 mph.
The current infrared imagery below shows the eye of Category 2 Arthur over the Pamlico Sound which separates the mainland from the Outer Banks.
Wind Gusts so far: 101 mph Cape Lookout, 99 mph Ocracoke, 88 mph Cedar Island, 87 mph Ft Macon. 83 mph Buxton.
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
2:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 4
Location: 35.3°N 76.1°W
Moving: NE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
Stunning view of Arthur from the ISS.
Source/Credit: NASA
11pm NHC Discussion
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.
Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.
Source: AccuWeather
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Arthur will continue to hammer away at the Outer Banks over the next 4-6 hours before heading north bringing wind, rain and heavy surf as well as rip currents further up the coast.
As you can see, the system provides a glancing blow to New England (predominantly coastal) but hits the Canadian Maritimes.
When looking at the current MJO situation, you can see the ‘small window’ of favourable area in the Caribbean but oranges quickly cover the region before another spell comes around mid to late July.
Despite Arthur, the Atlantic Basin is very quiet due to large plumes of Saharan dust blowing off Africa. In recent days, hazy skies have been observed as far away as Houston, Texas due to dust which has blow right across the Atlantic from the Sahara. Not uncommon.
Source: CIMSS
In turn, the ITCZ zone is supressed further south than usual but this is common in July and in El Nino years!
After the hot, humid air mass of recent days, the cool that’s been over the N Plains takes charge in the east through the next 1-2 weeks with the heat largely in the Wes according to the CFSv2.
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