The northward migration of the sub-tropical high is well underway. The first of two hot zones is already scorching. Ahead of the rainy/monsoon season, sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Arabian Peninsula and sub-continental Asia is now in the 104-110F range widely across Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Arabia. It’s yet to get to the unbearable stage over Northwest India and Pakistan but once you get into May, temperatures frequently hit 120F ahead of the monsoon. This is the natural cycle of stronger sunshine-arid desert feedback.
Top Image Source/Credit: NASA
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We’re entering the hottest 8 weeks of the year over India and Pakistan. Once and ‘if’ the monsoon rains arrive, so the natural air conditioning kicks in as SST’s heat and winds shift around India. Like, over the Asian sub-continent, the tropical rainy season also spreads north from the equator into the Sahel region where it’s hottest currently and will be for another few weeks. Once into June, July and August, heavy, tropical rains impact the sub-Sahara while the Sahara boils. Lands in and around the Med also get hot but this heat is tempered some by the water and sea breezes, albeit light. In direct line with the Sahara and beneath the core of the sub-tropical high, the Canaries also enjoy nearly unbroken sunshine and perfect conditions for a summer getaway. It gets hot for sure but cool Atlantic waters keep the heat bearable.
By this time (June-August), the jet has migrated to it’s most northerly position. Rainfall, even clouds become practically non-existent across the Sahara and Med while spells of this warmth pulse periodically north into the UK and Northern Europe. At times, like last year, these pulses are longer lasting than others.
Here’s the position of the sub-tropical high during the summer months.
Notice how the Deserts are located very near where the semi permanent sub-tropical high settles.
The short ‘rainy’ season is ending across the Sahara as troughs of cold and moisture retreat, giving way to the gruelling power of the sub tropical high which spent the winter just north of the equator.
It’s hot even by April standards over parts of the sub-Sahara and Arabia just now.
Here temperatures this afternoon.
Note the core of the heat remains south of the Sahara, this is normal. By late May, the core of heat shifts north and the tropical rains spread into these current hot areas bringing much needed relief.
It was a blistering 110 close to Senegal’s Atlantic coast this afternoon.
Modelling shows strongest heights compared to normal over these very areas over the next 7 days. The heat will continue building and spreading north.
GFS ensemble 7-mean 500mb height anomalies.
850mb temp anomalies.
2 metre temp anomalies.
QPF global precipitation chart for the next 7 days shows lack of rainfall in the typical desert belt while heaviest rains focus on the tropics.
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