US Outlook: Soggy Easter Weekend For Southeast, Heat & Severe Threat Increases Next Week

Written by Mark Vogan on April 19, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

While the chill once again comes and goes, so our focus turns to a system gathering over the Southeast. The elongated low, currently positioned along the Florida Panhandle coast, has already dropped a couple of inches widely across the Southeast and is likely to drop a further few inches through the Easter weekend from Mississippi to North Carolina.

Here’s the scene tonight out of Columbia, SC via WeatherBug.

A wet night in Columbia, SC (Courtesy/Credit: WeatherBug)

A lot of rain to come throughout the Easter weekend. Flooding already occurring in many areas this evening and the situation is only likely to worsen over the next 72 hours.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather

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TOP IMAGE COURTESY OF WEATHERBUG

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Here’s the GFS surface chart showing the progression of the low through the weekend.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

QPF rain totals through the next 72 hours.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a great and important message for folks throughout the Southeast this weekend.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather

It’s warm across a large swath of the US this weekend. Here’s highs for Saturday and Easter Sunday.

Sat

Source: weather.com

Sun

Source: weather.com

Changes come into next week as a significant dip in the jet Out West means heat builds over the Plains but as colder air dives south further west and a system develops and dives into the Southeast and Four Corners, so the severe weather risk greatly increases mid to late next week.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

We’re talking 90s perhaps as far north as Nebraska next week but increased lapse rates, CAPE and wind shear as a front sweeps east, so the first real, widespread severe weather outbreak late next week may be looming.

CFSv2 shows the air mass battle next week and heat and humidity builds north but comes up against resistance of cold continuing to try and push north off a near 90% Canada-wide snowpack. As stated already, this suggests an increased severe weather threat later next week.

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Week 3 shows more unseasonable chill coming south. Keep in mind that we’re well into May by this stage!

wk3_wk4_20140417_NAsfcT

Great Lakes Ice TWICE The Previous Record.

We currently have 39% ice cover still on the Great Lakes. That’s about 1,200% of normal. The previous record for this late in the season was 21.7% back on April 16, 1979.

Here’s the graphic from back then.

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Here’s now.

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Great graphic from AccuWeather shows just how much ice there is currently compared to recent years. Notice both 2010 and 2012 had NO ice, only 1% in 2011 by this stage.