Spring has definitely sprung over the West and temporarily in the Plains. I say temporarily because we’re going to see the Dakotas go from 70s, even 80s of today, back to 30s and 40s by the weekend and yes, there will be snow to speak of.

As a major, unseasonable cold shot dives down the Plains, so heights rise to the east. With strong southwest winds and sunshine, the first 80s are expected in Washington DC and the first 70s for New York and Boston. Just like the Plains, this taste of spring, which has yet to arrive, will be short lived.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The CFSv2 shows nicely the very up and down temperature profile across the country over the next 4 weeks. Week 1 (currently) is seeing the CA warmth spread east across the country but a renewed dagger of cold drops out of Canada this weekend, helping initially pump some warmth north up the East Coast but the entire trough slides east, bringing 40s and 50s back.

CFSv2 Temps

Week 1-2

Week 3-4

For those in such cities as New York and Boston where the maximums so far have been only in the 60s, this will sure feel nice I’m sure…

I looked through the data for Central Park and it appears that there have only been TWO occurrences in the past 20 years, where New York has failed to reach 70 by April 10. This year will make it 3. Although highs should hit 70 within the next 7 days, it appears that this years 70 comes AFTER April 12th which was when the first 70 occurred back in 1996. That means that since 1993, only 2003 will remain intact for latest 70 in NYC as it took till April 16 that year. We should see 70 this year around the 14th (Monday).

The ECMWF has 85 close to Metro DC while near 70 reaches Trenton, Newark.

Here’s a look at the latest run of the ECMWF below with the trough diving south this weekend into next week. Note the pumping of the ridge out ahead, the initial collapse of heights back to the southwest over Southern California as an upper low passes looks short lived as another ridge quickly slides in off the Pacific to replace the current one that gets kicked east.

That ridge btw is likely to be the country’s next surge of spring. I’m noticing on the newer ECMWF that the upper energy hangs back over SoCal which keeps heights lower over the Southwest with more zonal flow streaming into the West Coast. We shall see.

72 hrs

120

144

192

Denver will see a classic wild spring temperature rollercoaster between today and this weekend.

As the trough dives south, so a system forms bringing BIG rains throughout the Gulf Coast and up through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, but, this system does have a cold side and Denver will see it’s cold side.

QPF rainfall next 7 days.

A cold, easterly upslope develops along the Front Range as you can see on the 12z ECMWF at 102 hrs.

Enough cold air drops south with the trough for precipitation to fall as snow in Denver, perhaps even out on the eastern CO plains. Though 70s/80s to snow within 5 days is pretty wild stuff, it’s not untypical for Denver at this time of year!

ECMWF suggests a few inches for Denver, perhaps a foot back into the high country.

The model has some crazy scenarios with snow in other places further east. Will take this with a pinch of salt given it’s very changeable with each run. Some snow over the Dakotas, maybe central Plains, maybe OH Valley but less likely over the Northeast.

There will be some rather chilly nights by mid-April standards next week as the cold dives all the way to Texas. Could see 20s reach North Texas, a potential problem given the warmth out ahead will help bring out the vegetation.

Check out these 850 temperatures at 12z Monday.

Expect highs to run 15-30 below normal in places.

The trough quickly lifts out east with warmer air returning from the west.

Video will be back tomorrow…

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]